The Stony Brook School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.77 (fleet 2.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–28 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 15–11 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 2 | 6–2 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 9–5 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 12–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 42–28 against 42.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-27 | MASSA Team Championship and Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.20 | 1.85 | 8–10 | 8.9 | −0.36 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2024-04-14 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship Spring 2024 | skipper | 1.96 | 2.46 | 7–1 | 6.6 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2023-10-14 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.26 | 2.05 | 3–2 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2023-10-01 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2023 | skipper | 2.22 | 5.22 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 73% |
| 2023-04-29 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.29 | 0.55 | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.74 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 2023-04-22 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.21 | 5.21 | 8–0 | 7.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2022-10-22 | MASSA Fall 2022 Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.06 | 2.14 | 12–10 | 11.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 57% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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