NYISA-SE Spring Fleet Race Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 13 10 23
2 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 8 17 25
3 Rye Country Day School Rye Country Day School Wildcats 16 19 35
4 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 25 18 43
5 St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 31 30 61
6 Marauders Marauders Marauders 33 33 66
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 2 1 1 1 1 8 Gavin Hudson '24
Elaine Tian '24
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 1 3 2 3 2 2 13 Finn Palermo '24
Haley Kloepfer '25
Rye Country Day School Rye Country Day School Wildcats 4 1 3 2 3 3 16 Connor Rusch '25
Sara Komaroff '27
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 3 5 4 5 4 4 25 Gabby Collins '24 [1-4]
Owen Bischoff '25 [5-6]
Max Lazarus '25 [1-4]
Lanie Ferrarone '24 [5-6]
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 5 6 5 4 6 5 31 Catherine Desmond '26
Kathryn Elliott '26
Marauders Marauders Marauders 6 4 6 6 5 6 33
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 3 1 1 2 1 2 10 Kai Mcculloch '27 [1-6]
Hugo Sacristan '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Cecelia Hoogstra '25 [3-4]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 DSQ 3 1 3 1 17 Mauro Gonzales '24
Mairead Reitzel '24
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 4 2 4 3 2 3 18 Michelle Kaneti '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Mason Colgan '26 [3-4]
Lanie Ferrarone '24 [1-2]
Olivia Gray '26 [3-6]
Rye Country Day School Rye Country Day School Wildcats 1 3 2 5 4 4 19 Alice Rikkers '26
Zack Wirth '27
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 5 4 5 4 6 6 30 Bernadette Scott '24
Bridget Theisen '25
Marauders Marauders Marauders 6 5 6 6 5 5 33
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
MaraudersMarauders Marauders113355
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers224466
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets446622
Rye Country Day SchoolRye Country Day School Wildcats335511
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars551133
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears662244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
MaraudersMarauders Marauders224466
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers335511
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets551133
Rye Country Day SchoolRye Country Day School Wildcats446622
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars662244
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears113355

Conditions — 04/20/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1012.0 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 31.7 kn
From WSW (247°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine7.8 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1012.0 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mamaroneck: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.18 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mamaroneck by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Mamaroneck: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →