St. John the Baptist '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50 (fleet 0.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–22 (8%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 0–3 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 2–22 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2024 | skipper | 0.71 | -0.23 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.94 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2024-04-14 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship Spring 2024 | skipper | 0.77 | 1.33 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2023-10-01 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2023 | skipper | 0.76 | -2.24 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2023-04-22 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.64 | -2.36 | 0–8 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.4 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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