NYISA-SE Fleet League Championship Fall 2024

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 11 9 20
2 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 15 14 29
3 St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 18 14 32
4 Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 16 24 40
5 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 30 29 59
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 3 2 1 3 1 11 Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 [1-6]
Mia Jones '26 [1-3]
Joshua Henson '25 [4-6]
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 4 1 3 3 2 2 15 Michelle Kaneti '25
Max Lazarus '25
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 2 2 4 4 1 3 16 Brian Lynch '26
Connor Phililps '29
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 3 4 1 2 4 4 18 Catherine Desmond '26
Kathryn Elliott '26
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 5 5 5 5 5 5 30 Haley Kloepfer '25
Mark Lieshaj '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 3 1 1 1 2 9 Emily Gaillard '25
Jp Panebianco '27
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 2 1 2 2 4 3 14 Kevin Ryan '25
Bridget Theisen '25
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 3 2 3 3 2 1 14 Jonathan Wittick '25
Olivia Gray '27
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 4 4 4 4 3 5 24 Chase Horne '27
Marlow Collamore '27
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 5 5 5 5 5 4 29 Madeleine Waddington '28
Annabella Milano '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers111111
Mattituck High SchoolMattituck High School Tuckers222222
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets333333
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars444444
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers666666
Mattituck High SchoolMattituck High School Tuckers777777
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets888888
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars999999
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears101010101010

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From N (353°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1020.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at The Stony Brook School: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Stony Brook School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at The Stony Brook School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →