| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,491 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 20 matches (95%) with a log-loss of 0.215 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.54 ± 0.47: an orderly event, more orderly than 81% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 1 | 6.23 school −0.20, home +0.14 | Gavin Hudson / Mairead Reitzel 2.71 Mauro Gonzales / Amy Li 2.21 Jeremy Lunati / Sean Beaver 1.35 | 92% | 8–0 (100%) | +0.6 |
| 2 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 2 | 3.94 school +0.13 | Gabby Collins / Graham Welsh 1.78 Lanie Ferrarone / Jonathan Wittick 1.05 Nicholas Heggerud / Max Lazarus 0.89 | 62% | 6–2 (75%) | +1.1 |
| 3 | Rye High School Garnets | 3 | 3.80 school +0.27 | Saffer Lillian / Annabella Milano 1.05 Helen Halvorson / Hugo Sacristan Finn Palermo / Wryder Mcgill | 59% | 4–4 (50%) | −0.7 |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School Wildcats | 5 | 1.28 | Hayden Hart / Josh Greene Connor Rusch / Alice Rikkers Connor Davidson / Sara Komaroff | 19% | 2–6 (25%) | +0.5 |
| 5 | St. John the Baptist Cougars | 4 | 1.28 | Nicole Ostapowicz / Bernadette Scott Catherine Desmond / Kathryn Elliott Henry Joinnides / Juliana Miller | 19% | 0–8 (0%) | −1.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School | 6.23 | 9.23 | 8–0 | 7.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2 | Mamaroneck High School | 3.94 | 5.26 | 6–2 | 4.9 | +1.32 | 0.8 | 29% |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School | 1.28 | 1.91 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 3 | Rye High School | 3.80 | 3.04 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.77 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 5 | St. John the Baptist | 1.28 | -1.72 | 0–8 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Gonzales | The Stony Brook School | 2.21 | 5.21 | 8–0 | 7.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| Nicholas Heggerud | Mamaroneck High School | 0.89 | 2.21 | 6–2 | 4.9 | +1.32 | 0.8 | 29% |
| Hayden Hart | Rye Country Day School | 0.06 | 0.70 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Connor Rusch | Rye Country Day School | 0.57 | 1.20 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Connor Davidson | Rye Country Day School | 0.38 | 1.01 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Saffer Lillian | Rye High School | 1.05 | 0.29 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.77 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Catherine Desmond | St. John the Baptist | 0.64 | -2.36 | 0–8 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Garnets | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Garnets | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Tigers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Garnets | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Gavin Hudson '24 Jeremy Lunati '23 Mauro Gonzales '24 |
Mairead Reitzel '24 Sean Beaver '23 Amy Li '23 |
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Gabby Collins '24 Lanie Ferrarone '24 Nicholas Heggerud '23 |
Graham Welsh '23 Jonathan Wittick '25 Max Lazarus '25 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Finn Palermo '24 Helen Halvorson '26 Saffer Lillian '23 |
Wryder Mcgill '26 Hugo Sacristan '26 Annabella Milano '25 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Connor Davidson '24 Connor Rusch '25 Hayden Hart '25 |
Sara Komaroff '27 Alice Rikkers '26 Josh Greene '25 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Catherine Desmond '26 Henry Joinnides '24 Nicole Ostapowicz '24 |
Kathryn Elliott '26 Juliana Miller '24 Bernadette Scott '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
