Rye High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.74 (fleet 1.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–18 (59%) as crew 14–9 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 12–3 | 5–8 |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | — | 9–1 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (67 matches) the record is 40–27 against 39.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.05 | 0.29 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.77 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2022-04-30 | MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.97 | -0.64 | 3–9 | 5.2 | −1.62 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2021-10-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.96 | 1.33 | 7–2 | 6.6 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2021-04-24 | MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers | skipper | 3.03 | 3.24 | 8–3 | 7.7 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2021-04-24 | MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers | crew | 3.03 | 2.37 | 5–8 | 6.3 | −0.66 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2021-04-10 | NYISA-SE Team Race Qualifer | skipper | 0.73 | 3.73 | 4–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 5.6 | 1% |
| 2019-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | crew | 0.64 | 2.01 | 9–1 | 8.0 | +1.37 | 0.7 | 33% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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