| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 9–1 |
| 3 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 4–6 |
| 4 |  |
WHB Hurricane Sailing | Hurricanes | 3–7 |
| 5 |  |
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
Mattituck High School | Tuckers | 2–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,761 team race matches sailed before 2019-09-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 30 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.384 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.42: a typical event, more orderly than 46% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rye High School | 3.55 | 4.92 | 9–1 | 8.0 | +1.37 | 0.7 | 33% |
| 4 | WHB Hurricane Sailing | 0.01 | 0.48 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 5 | Bay Shore High School | 0.05 | 0.45 | 3–7 | 2.5 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2 | The Stony Brook School | 4.22 | 4.53 | 9–1 | 8.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 3 | St. John the Baptist | 1.14 | 0.89 | 4–6 | 4.3 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 6 | Mattituck High School | 0.92 | -0.66 | 2–8 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Sophie | Rye High School | 1.10 | 2.47 | 9–1 | 8.0 | +1.37 | 0.7 | 33% |
| Madeline Saffer | Rye High School | 1.40 | 2.77 | 9–1 | 8.0 | +1.37 | 0.7 | 33% |
| Quirke Declan | Rye High School | 0.64 | 2.01 | 9–1 | 8.0 | +1.37 | 0.7 | 33% |
| Henry Smyth | WHB Hurricane Sailing | 0.19 | 0.67 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Emma Strebel | WHB Hurricane Sailing | -0.18 | 0.30 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Simon Moskowitz | WHB Hurricane Sailing | -0.32 | 0.15 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Molly Roy | Bay Shore High School | -0.14 | 0.26 | 3–7 | 2.5 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Emma Beqaj | Bay Shore High School | -0.35 | 0.05 | 3–7 | 2.5 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Lilly Jette | The Stony Brook School | 1.40 | 1.71 | 9–1 | 8.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Harry Fredericks | The Stony Brook School | 0.71 | 1.02 | 9–1 | 8.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Dylan O'Donnell | St. John the Baptist | 0.22 | -0.03 | 4–6 | 4.3 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Edward Sims | St. John the Baptist | 0.29 | 0.04 | 4–6 | 4.3 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Ava Sannino | Mattituck High School | 0.14 | -1.44 | 2–8 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Matt Krupnick | Mattituck High School | 0.26 | -1.32 | 2–8 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Micky Kalich | Mattituck High School | 0.21 | -1.37 | 2–8 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 1.7 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tuckers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tuckers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Tuckers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Marauders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tuckers | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Marauders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tuckers | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tuckers | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tuckers | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Tuckers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Marauders | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tuckers | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Marauders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tuckers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Brett Sophie '21 Madeline Saffer '20 Quirke Declan '22 |
Van Der Voort Elizabeth '21 Kruitzjer Clara '21 Saffer Lillian '23 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Harry Fredericks '22 Lilly Jette '21 Steven Hardee '22 |
Imogene Dunn '21 Isabella Seminario '22 Julia Evans '21 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Dylan O'Donnell '22 Edward Sims '23 Sofia Scarpa '22 |
Marina Gilmartin '20 Brian Kaminsky '22 Hailey Davis '21 |
|
WHB Hurricane Sailing | Hurricanes | Emma Strebel '21 Henry Smyth '20 Simon Moskowitz '22 |
Laurel Wilsenski '21 Jade Jackey '21 Yunushan Gulsen '20 |
|
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | Emma Beqaj '20 Molly Roy '21 Spencer Asofsky '21 |
Henry Joinnides '24 Gio Mesquita '20 Connor Quinn '23 |
|
Mattituck High School | Tuckers | Ava Sannino '22 Matt Krupnick '22 Micky Kalich '22 |
Adrian Mccandlish '27 Jackson Frend '24 Raleigh Smith '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
