St. John the Baptist '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 (fleet 0.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–12 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 6–12 against 6.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | skipper | 0.22 | -0.03 | 4–6 | 4.3 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2018-10-13 | NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | skipper | 0.25 | -0.34 | 2–6 | 2.5 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE FLEET LEAGUE CHAMPS | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.8 | -0.47 |
| NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Fling Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | -0.06 |
| New York State Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.2 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| NYISA-SE Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.1 | 0.83 |
| MASSA Fall SILVER Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.2 | -0.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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