NYISA-SE FLEET LEAGUE CHAMPS

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 10 9 19
2 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 13 12 25
3 Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 18 17 35
4 St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 23 23 46
5 Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 26 29 55
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 1 1 1 1 5 10 Steven Hardee '22
Julia Evans '21
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 2 2 3 3 2 1 13 Brett Sophie '21
Fung Audrey '20
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 3 3 2 2 5 3 18 Micky Kalich '22
Jackson Frend '24
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 5 5 4 4 3 2 23 Dylan O'Donnell '22
Bella Tucciarone '22
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 4 4 5 5 4 4 26 Spencer Asofsky '21 [1-6]
Henry Joinnides '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Lauryn Piccirelli '23 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 2 3 1 1 1 9 Lilly Jette '21
Isabella Seminario '22
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 3 1 1 2 3 2 12 Madeline Saffer '20
Van Der Voort Elizabeth '21
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 2 3 2 3 4 3 17 Ava Sannino '22
Matt Krupnick '20
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 5 4 4 4 2 4 23 Sofia Scarpa '22
Marina Gilmartin '20
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 4 5 5 5 5 5 29 Molly Roy '21 [1-4]
Mia Graziano '23 [5-6]
Mia Graziano '23 [1-2]
Mike Smith '23 [3-4]
Lauryn Piccirelli '23 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bay Shore High SchoolBay Shore High School Marauders113355
Mattituck High SchoolMattituck High School Tuckers224411
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets335522
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars441133
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears552244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bay Shore High SchoolBay Shore High School Marauders224411
Mattituck High SchoolMattituck High School Tuckers335522
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets441133
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars552244
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears113355

Conditions — 09/22/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From SSW (205°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover19% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1020.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at The Stony Brook: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.26 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at The Stony Brook, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →