Mattituck High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 (fleet 0.28) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–8 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 2–8 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | skipper | 0.14 | -1.44 | 2–8 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE League Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 0.07 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Fall Fleet Champs (District Qualifier) | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | -0.78 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime Fall Intersectional Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | 0.34 |
| NYISA-SE FLEET LEAGUE CHAMPS | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 1.12 |
| NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Fling Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 0.22 |
| NYISA-SE League Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 0.01 |
| MASSA 2019 Spring Silver Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.0 | -2.73 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Fall Fleet Racing Championship | Crew | B | 4 | 4.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
