MASSA 2019 Spring Silver Fleet Championship

HostWashington College
Date04/13/2019
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Leonardtown High School	Raiders	24	49	73
2	Broadneck High School	Bruins	42	58	100
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	44	60	104
4	Toms River South	Indians	48	59	107
5	Great Mills High School	Hornets	57	53	110
6	The Stony Brook School	Bears	74	45	119
7	Poquoson High School	Islanders	30	95	125
8	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	81	50	131
9	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	66	69	135
10	Rye Country Day School	Wildcats	49	89	138
11	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	105	43	148
12	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	69	80	149
13	Canisius High School	Crusaders	104	61	165
14	Mathews High School	Blue Devils	91	106	197
15	Mattituck High School	Tuckers	127	92	219
16	McQuaid High School	Knights	106	123	229
17	Chatham High School	Cougars	129	108	237
18	Mercy High School	Monarchs	123	132	255

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	3	4	1	1	8	1	3	3	24	Daniel Unangst '20 Emily Williams '20
Poquoson High School	Islanders	1	7	2	6	3	4	5	2	30	Jack Mckenna '20 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Broadneck High School	Bruins	7	1	9	2	1	9	7	6	42	Emma Snead '19 Lucien Parker '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	2	10	3	5	5	5	9	5	44	Ryan Ehnot '22 [1-8] Joseph David '20 [1-6] Justin Modin '19 [7-8]
Toms River South	Indians	5	2	4	3	9	7	6	12	48	Zach Higham '19 [1-8] Trent Morrison '21 [1-4] Sonja Krajewski '22 [5-6] Jack Parks '21 [7-8]
Rye Country Day School	Wildcats	6	9	5	7	6	8	4	4	49	Jaume Pujadas '20 Alexa Shea '22
Great Mills High School	Hornets	10	3	7	10	7	2	10	8	57	Lucy Paskoff '20 Hannah Carlsen '19
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	4	DSQ	6	13	11	10	2	1	66	Sean Groskoph '20 [1-8] Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-4] Jack Greengrass '22 [5-8]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	9	5	10	4	12	3	13	13	69	Michael Pinto '19 [1-6] Chris Medolla '20 [7-8] Chase Davis '20 [1-6] Mason Medolla '22 [7-8]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	14	11	12	11	2	6	8	10	74	Thomas Derose '19 [1-8] Hannah Dilavore '20 [1-4] Alyssa Jette '19 [5-6] Ella Simmons '20 [7-8]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	12	12	17	15	4	13	1	7	81	Cole Handly '19 [1-8] Morgan Handly '21 [1-4] Megan Geith '20 [5-8]
Mathews High School	Blue Devils	13	8	11	14	14	11	11	9	91	Andrew Ciszewski '21 David Mattox '21
Canisius High School	Crusaders	15	13	13	8	13	14	14	14	104	Sam Balanevsky '21 Gavin Sheehan '20
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	17	6	8	18	10	16	15	15	105	Anna Groszkowski '22 [1-6] Griffin Richardson '21 [7-8] Ty Ryan '22 [1-6] Joaquin Marquez '21 [7-8]
McQuaid High School	Knights	11	14	14	12	15	17	12	11	106	Brent Penwarden '20 Lucas Lewyckyj '21
Mercy High School	Monarchs	8	17	18	9	17	18	18	18	123	Emily Davis '19 Bridget Taylor '20
Mattituck High School	Tuckers	18	15	15	16	16	15	16	16	127	Francesco Sannino '20 [1-8] Gabby Wahlers '20 [1-6] Cassidy Mullin '20 [7-8]
Chatham High School	Cougars	16	16	16	17	18	12	17	17	129	Carson Lubrano '20 [1-8] Zoe Papier '19 [1-2, 5-8] Amanda Williams '21 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	1	13	8	10	1	2	4	4	43	Ava Farley '22 Caroline Kelly '19
The Stony Brook School	Bears	3	4	3	3	3	DSQ	3	7	45	Jack Crager '20 [1-8] Isabella Seminario '22 [1-6] Joshua Pavao '20 [7-8]
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	4	8	2	2	4	4	6	RAF	49	Audrey Commerford '21 Makenna Labor '21
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	7	7	1	1	9	3	9	13	50	Tyler Brown '22 [1-8] Charlotte Pirnik '20 [1-4] Maggie Leddy '20 [5-8]
Great Mills High School	Hornets	5	5	4	6	6	7	10	10	53	Olivia Sowa '20 [1-6] Lochlann Ludwig '21 [7-8] Braedon Myers '20 [1-6]
Broadneck High School	Bruins	11	2	9	17	7	1	8	3	58	Morgan Carew '21 Josh Becker '20
Toms River South	Indians	2	6	10	11	8	8	13	1	59	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-8] Garrett Johnston '22 [1-6] Alexa Carles '19 [7-8]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	DSQ	1	7	12	2	5	2	12	60	Ryan Mullins '19 Connor Feury '22
Canisius High School	Crusaders	8	9	5	5	5	6	15	8	61	Rory Mcclenehan '20 Braden Rottner '20
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	13	3	6	7	10	14	7	9	69	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-4] Malcolm Harrison '19 [5-8] Mia Chmelar '19 [1-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	9	15	11	16	16	10	1	2	80	Chris Medolla '20 [1-6] Michael Pinto '19 [7-8] Mason Medolla '22 [1-6] Chase Davis '20 [7-8]
Rye Country Day School	Wildcats	15	11	15	8	11	11	12	6	89	Josie Yeager '20 [1-6] Tyler Gilman '20 [7-8] Grant Halpern '22 [1-6] Andrew Lemley '22 [7-8]
Mattituck High School	Tuckers	10	10	12	4	18	16	11	11	92	Micky Kalich '22 [1-4, 7-8] Ava Sannino '22 [5-6] Matt Krupnick '20 [1-4, 7-8] Cassidy Mullin '20 [5-6]
Poquoson High School	Islanders	12	12	13	14	17	17	5	5	95	Chase Brewer '22 [1-5, 7-8] Claire Dicarlo '22 [6] Claire Dicarlo '22 [1-5] Ashlyn Wise '21 [6-7] Mollypaige Deans '19 [8]
Mathews High School	Blue Devils	6	17	14	13	13	12	16	15	106	Alaya Mccurry '21 Cody Carnes '21
Chatham High School	Cougars	14	14	16	15	12	9	14	14	108	Ryan Mcwalters '21 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
McQuaid High School	Knights	17	16	OCS	9	14	13	18	17	123	Broderick Heleperi '20 Jack Foster '20
Mercy High School	Monarchs	16	18	17	18	15	15	17	16	132	Clementine Matzky '21 Ella Weber '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Broadneck High School Bruins	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Canisius High School Crusaders	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Chatham High School Cougars	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Great Mills High School Hornets	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Leonardtown High School Raiders	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Mathews High School Blue Devils	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Mattituck High School Tuckers	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
McQuaid High School Knights	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Mercy High School Monarchs	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Poquoson High School Islanders	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1
Rye Country Day School Wildcats	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3
Summit High School Hilltoppers	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4
The Stony Brook School Bears	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5
Toms River South Indians	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Canisius High School Crusaders	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Chatham High School Cougars	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Great Mills High School Hornets	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Leonardtown High School Raiders	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Mathews High School Blue Devils	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Mattituck High School Tuckers	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
McQuaid High School Knights	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Mercy High School Monarchs	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1
Poquoson High School Islanders	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2
Rye Country Day School Wildcats	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4
Summit High School Hilltoppers	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5
The Stony Brook School Bears	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6
Toms River South Indians	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Archbishop Spalding	Anna Groszkowski '22 [1-6] Griffin Richardson '21 [7-8]	Ty Ryan '22 [1-6] Joaquin Marquez '21 [7-8]
Cavaliers	Ava Farley '22	Caroline Kelly '19
Broadneck High School	Emma Snead '19	Lucien Parker '20
Bruins	Morgan Carew '21	Josh Becker '20
Canisius High School	Sam Balanevsky '21	Gavin Sheehan '20
Crusaders	Rory Mcclenehan '20	Braden Rottner '20
Chatham High School	Carson Lubrano '20 [1-8]	Zoe Papier '19 [1-2, 5-8] Amanda Williams '21 [3-4]
Cougars	Ryan Mcwalters '21	Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22 [1-8]	Joseph David '20 [1-6] Justin Modin '19 [7-8]
Colts	Ryan Mullins '19	Connor Feury '22
Great Mills High School	Lucy Paskoff '20	Hannah Carlsen '19
Hornets	Olivia Sowa '20 [1-6] Lochlann Ludwig '21 [7-8]	Braedon Myers '20 [1-6]
Kecoughtan High School	Cole Handly '19 [1-8]	Morgan Handly '21 [1-4] Megan Geith '20 [5-8]
Warriors	Tyler Brown '22 [1-8]	Charlotte Pirnik '20 [1-4] Maggie Leddy '20 [5-8]
Leonardtown High School	Daniel Unangst '20	Emily Williams '20
Raiders	Audrey Commerford '21	Makenna Labor '21
Mathews High School	Andrew Ciszewski '21	David Mattox '21
Blue Devils	Alaya Mccurry '21	Cody Carnes '21
Mattituck High School	Francesco Sannino '20 [1-8]	Gabby Wahlers '20 [1-6] Cassidy Mullin '20 [7-8]
Tuckers	Micky Kalich '22 [1-4, 7-8] Ava Sannino '22 [5-6]	Matt Krupnick '20 [1-4, 7-8] Cassidy Mullin '20 [5-6]
McQuaid High School	Brent Penwarden '20	Lucas Lewyckyj '21
Knights	Broderick Heleperi '20	Jack Foster '20
Mercy High School	Emily Davis '19	Bridget Taylor '20
Monarchs	Clementine Matzky '21	Ella Weber '22
Poquoson High School	Jack Mckenna '20	Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Islanders	Chase Brewer '22 [1-5, 7-8] Claire Dicarlo '22 [6]	Claire Dicarlo '22 [1-5] Ashlyn Wise '21 [6-7] Mollypaige Deans '19 [8]
Rye Country Day School	Jaume Pujadas '20	Alexa Shea '22
Wildcats	Josie Yeager '20 [1-6] Tyler Gilman '20 [7-8]	Grant Halpern '22 [1-6] Andrew Lemley '22 [7-8]
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19 [1-6] Chris Medolla '20 [7-8]	Chase Davis '20 [1-6] Mason Medolla '22 [7-8]
Hermits	Chris Medolla '20 [1-6] Michael Pinto '19 [7-8]	Mason Medolla '22 [1-6] Chase Davis '20 [7-8]
Summit High School	Sean Groskoph '20 [1-8]	Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-4] Jack Greengrass '22 [5-8]
Hilltoppers	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-4] Malcolm Harrison '19 [5-8]	Mia Chmelar '19 [1-4]
The Stony Brook School	Thomas Derose '19 [1-8]	Hannah Dilavore '20 [1-4] Alyssa Jette '19 [5-6] Ella Simmons '20 [7-8]
Bears	Jack Crager '20 [1-8]	Isabella Seminario '22 [1-6] Joshua Pavao '20 [7-8]
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-8]	Trent Morrison '21 [1-4] Sonja Krajewski '22 [5-6] Jack Parks '21 [7-8]
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-8]	Garrett Johnston '22 [1-6] Alexa Carles '19 [7-8]

Conditions — 04/13/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 82% · Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 60°F

Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.7 kn

avg · max 6.7 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From SW (220°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine4.2 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1018.5 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · S 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Washington College: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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