McQuaid High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 (fleet 3.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–14 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 0–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 0–14 against 0.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.31 | -2.69 | 0–14 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Season | |||||
| NYISA-NW Rochester Wednesday Race Night | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.8 | 3.12 |
| NYISA-NW League Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 1.12 |
| NYISA-NW Fall One - Design Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.3 | 2.88 |
| Chautauqua Lake Fall Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.0 | 1.89 |
| Spring 2019 Season | |||||
| NYISA-NW League Qualifier | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.0 | 0.79 |
| MASSA 2019 Spring Silver Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.2 | -0.36 |
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| NYISA-NW Spring Fleet Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 2.50 |
| MASSA Spring Silver Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.6 | -0.52 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Brent Penwarden |  Jacksonville University |
'24 |
| ISSA | Brent Penwarden |  Mercy High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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