NYISA-SE Fall Fleet Racing Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 13 21 34
2 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 27 22 49
3 St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 36 35 71
4 Oyster Bay High School Oyster Bay High School Baymen 35 36 71
5 Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 38 42 80
6 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 74 38 112
7 Harborfields Harborfields Harborfield Varsity 65 59 124
8 Three Village CSD Three Village CSD Patriots 66 59 125
9 Northport HS Northport HS Northport VS 64 68 132
10 Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 55 78 133
11 Bellport  Senior High School Bellport Senior High School Varsity 74 70 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 1 3 1 1 1 2 3 1 13 Michelle Lahrkamp '19 [1-8]
Madeline Saffer '20 [1-6]
Constantyn Vandervoort '19 [7-8]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears DNS 1 4 4 2 1 1 2 27 Thomas Derose '19 [1-8]
Ella Simmons '19 [1-4]
Alyssa Jette '19 [5-8]
Oyster Bay High School Oyster Bay High School Baymen DNS 4 3 2 3 3 4 4 35 Richie Kertatos '18
Evan Furman '21
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 3 5 2 5 6 5 5 5 36 Clare Guarascio '18
Kaitlyn Brzostek '19
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 2 2 5 DNS 4 4 2 7 38 Alexandra Talbot '18
Laryssa Andreadis '18
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 4 9 8 6 DNS 7 6 3 55 Emma Beqaj '20 [1-8]
Rudy Caligure '18 [1-4]
Dylan Dorsch '19 [5-8]
Northport HS Northport HS Northport VS DNS 8 7 3 5 9 9 11 64 Tyler Medows '19 [1-8]
Lauren Thompson '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Lukas Ventouras '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Harborfields Harborfields Harborfield Varsity 5 10 11 7 10 6 7 9 65 Max Hafen '18
Caroline Greco '21
Three Village CSD Three Village CSD Patriots DNS 7 6 DSQ 7 8 8 6 66 Alex Wiggins '18
Philip Foucher '18
Bellport  Senior High School Bellport Senior High School Varsity 6 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 74 Eva Leggett '20
No Show
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates DNS 6 10 8 8 11 11 8 74 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 2 1 5 2 2 3 2 4 21 Lise Powers '20 [1-4]
Brett Sophie '21 [5-8]
Cc Millard '19 [1-4]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 2 6 6 1 1 3 2 22 Matthew Sparacio '18
Hannah Dilavore '20
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 4 4 1 10 3 2 5 6 35 Andrew Madsgard '18
Kristen Hess '19
Oyster Bay High School Oyster Bay High School Baymen 3 8 3 5 4 6 6 1 36 Rebecca Keller '21
Gregory Jones '21
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 5 3 4 1 8 5 1 11 38 No Show
No Show
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 7 5 8 3 6 4 4 5 42 Francesco Sannino '20 [1-4]
Nick Andreadis '18 [5-8]
Nick Andreadis '18 [1-4]
Ava Sannino '22 [5-8]
Three Village CSD Three Village CSD Patriots 8 7 9 4 7 7 10 7 59 Simon Allam '18
Natalia Newton '20
Harborfields Harborfields Harborfield Varsity 11 6 10 8 5 8 8 3 59 Alexandra Hafen '21
Caroline Greco '21
Northport HS Northport HS Northport VS 6 11 2 9 10 10 11 9 68 Ana Honoria '18
Connor Burns '22
Bellport  Senior High School Bellport Senior High School Varsity 9 10 7 7 9 9 9 10 70 Reece Lynch '21
Luca Sharpf '20
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 10 9 11 11 11 11 7 8 78 Kevin Souhrada '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Joe Termini '23 [5-6]
Ben Finley '19 [1-4]
Tyler Farley '19 [5-6]
Joe Termini '23 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bay Shore High SchoolBay Shore High School Marauders22446688
Bellport  Senior High SchoolBellport Senior High School Varsity11335577
HarborfieldsHarborfields Harborfield Varsity33557799
Mattituck High SchoolMattituck High School Tuckers4466881010
Northport HSNorthport HS Northport VS5577991111
Oyster Bay High SchoolOyster Bay High School Baymen9911112244
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets6688101011
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars1010113355
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears7799111122
Three Village CSDThree Village CSD Patriots8810101133
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates1111224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bay Shore High SchoolBay Shore High School Marauders33557799
Bellport  Senior High SchoolBellport Senior High School Varsity22446688
HarborfieldsHarborfields Harborfield Varsity4466881010
Mattituck High SchoolMattituck High School Tuckers5577991111
Northport HSNorthport HS Northport VS6688101011
Oyster Bay High SchoolOyster Bay High School Baymen1010113355
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets7799111122
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars1111224466
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears8810101133
Three Village CSDThree Village CSD Patriots9911112244
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Emma Beqaj '20 [1-8] Rudy Caligure '18 [1-4]
Dylan Dorsch '19 [5-8]
Marauders Kevin Souhrada '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Joe Termini '23 [5-6]
Ben Finley '19 [1-4]
Tyler Farley '19 [5-6]
Joe Termini '23 [7-8]
Bellport  Senior High School Bellport Senior High School Eva Leggett '20 No Show
Varsity Reece Lynch '21 Luca Sharpf '20
Harborfields Harborfields Max Hafen '18 Caroline Greco '21
Harborfield Varsity Alexandra Hafen '21 Caroline Greco '21
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Alexandra Talbot '18 Laryssa Andreadis '18
Tuckers Francesco Sannino '20 [1-4]
Nick Andreadis '18 [5-8]
Nick Andreadis '18 [1-4]
Ava Sannino '22 [5-8]
Northport HS Northport HS Tyler Medows '19 [1-8] Lauren Thompson '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Lukas Ventouras '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Northport VS Ana Honoria '18 Connor Burns '22
Oyster Bay High School Oyster Bay High School Richie Kertatos '18 Evan Furman '21
Baymen Rebecca Keller '21 Gregory Jones '21
Rye High School Rye High School Michelle Lahrkamp '19 [1-8] Madeline Saffer '20 [1-6]
Constantyn Vandervoort '19 [7-8]
Garnets Lise Powers '20 [1-4]
Brett Sophie '21 [5-8]
Cc Millard '19 [1-4]
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Clare Guarascio '18 Kaitlyn Brzostek '19
Cougars Andrew Madsgard '18 Kristen Hess '19
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Thomas Derose '19 [1-8] Ella Simmons '19 [1-4]
Alyssa Jette '19 [5-8]
Bears Matthew Sparacio '18 Hannah Dilavore '20
Three Village CSD Three Village CSD Alex Wiggins '18 Philip Foucher '18
Patriots Simon Allam '18 Natalia Newton '20
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA No Show No Show
Pirates No Show No Show

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From N (4°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1016.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bay Shore: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.19 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bay Shore by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bay Shore, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →