St. John the Baptist '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.45 (fleet 0.73) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–6 (14%) as crew 7–19 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | — | 2–4 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 2–4 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 3–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 8–25 against 8.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-01 | NYISA-SE League Team Race Champs & District Qual | skipper | 0.86 | 0.14 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2016-10-01 | NYISA-SE FallTeam Race Champs & District Qualifier | crew | 1.18 | 1.57 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 2016-04-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship & Baker Qualifier | crew | 0.49 | 0.93 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 2015-10-31 | MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | crew | 0.80 | 0.32 | 3–11 | 3.6 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA - SE Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | -0.45 |
| MASSA Girls Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 26 | 10.3 | -0.39 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime MASSA Fall Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.0 | -0.14 |
| NYISA-SE Fall Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 0.85 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE League Team Race Champs & District Qual | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE League Fall Fleet Racing Championships | Crew | A | 4 | 5.5 | — |
| NYISA-SE FallTeam Race Champs & District Qualifier | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| 2016 SUNY Maritime Fall Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 1.41 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship & Baker Qualifier | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| 2016 MASSA District Mallory Championship | Crew | B | 2 | 18.0 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | Crew | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
