| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Locust Valley High School | Falcons | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 1–7 |
| 5 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,762 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 13 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.219 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.50 ± 0.64: a typical event, more orderly than 77% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 1 | 6.93 school +0.09 | Emma Kaneti / Molly Banks 2.20 Carmen Cowles / Guy Santee 2.42 Emma Cowles / Julia Henderson 2.12 | 92% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.5 |
| 2 | Rye High School Garnets | 2 | 5.18 school +0.14 | Michelle Lahrkamp / Elliot Taft 2.29 Carina Becker / Lise Powers 1.74 Madeline Saffer / Caroline Costa 0.92 | 68% | 4–2 (67%) | −0.1 |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School Wildcats | 3 | 2.21 school +0.05 | Josie Yeager / Will Dunn Jaume Pujadas / Jack Briano Lucie Rochat / Ruth Reynolds 1.08 0–4 Lucie Rochat / Tyler Gilman 1.04 2–1 | 28% | 2–5 (29%) | +0.1 |
| 5 | St. John the Baptist Cougars | 4 | 1.88 school +0.12 | Noah Scarpa / Kaitlyn Brzostek 0.81 Clare Guarascio / Kyra Gilmore Andrew Madsgard / Brianna Califano 1–4 Emma Worthington / Brianna Califano 0–2 | 21% | 1–6 (14%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School | 6.93 | 9.93 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School | 2.21 | 2.28 | 2–5 | 1.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2 | Rye High School | 5.18 | 4.99 | 4–2 | 4.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 81% |
| 5 | St. John the Baptist | 1.88 | 1.16 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | Mamaroneck High School | 2.42 | 5.42 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| Emma Cowles | Mamaroneck High School | 2.12 | 5.12 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| Josie Yeager | Rye Country Day School | 0.32 | 0.40 | 2–5 | 1.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Jaume Pujadas | Rye Country Day School | 0.58 | 0.66 | 2–5 | 1.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Madeline Saffer | Rye High School | 0.92 | 0.73 | 4–2 | 4.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 81% |
| Andrew Madsgard | St. John the Baptist | -0.06 | -0.62 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.56 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Noah Scarpa | St. John the Baptist | 0.81 | 0.09 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Clare Guarascio | St. John the Baptist | 0.86 | 0.14 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 84% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Garnets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Garnets | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Falcons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Garnets | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Garnets | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Carmen Cowles '19 Emma Cowles '19 Emma Kaneti '18 |
Guy Santee '19 Julia Henderson '18 Molly Banks '18 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Carina Becker '17 Madeline Saffer '20 Michelle Lahrkamp '19 |
Lise Powers '20 Caroline Costa '18 Elliot Taft '19 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Jaume Pujadas '20 Josie Yeager '20 Lucie Rochat '18 |
Jack Briano '17 Will Dunn '18 Ruth Reynolds '17 Tyler Gilman '20 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Andrew Madsgard '18 Clare Guarascio '18 Emma Worthington '19 Noah Scarpa '17 |
Brianna Califano '17 Kyra Gilmore '17 Kaitlyn Brzostek '19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
