Rye Country Day School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.40 (fleet 0.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–12 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 7–12 against 7.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | NYISA - SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.70 | -0.68 | 1–5 | 2.1 | −1.37 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 2017-04-01 | NYISA-SE League Team Race Champs & District Qual | skipper | 1.08 | 1.15 | 2–5 | 1.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2016-04-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship & Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.77 | 1.58 | 4–2 | 3.4 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime Spring Intersectional | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 1.26 |
| NYISA - SE Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| NYISA - SE Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | -1.09 |
| MASSA Spring Silver Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.6 | -0.19 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE League Team Race Champs & District Qual | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| NYISA-SE Mallory Champs & District Qual | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 1.61 |
| MASSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.6 | 0.14 |
| Connecticut State Championships | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 1.45 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime College Spring Invitational | Crew | B | 5 | 4.8 | — |
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship & Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Mallory National Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 15.8 | -0.79 |
| 2016 MASSA District Mallory Championship | Crew | A | 2 | 8.0 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA 2015 Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 2 | 16.0 | -2.21 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Lucie Rochat |  Middlebury College |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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