| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Locust Valley High School | Falcons | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 3–5 |
| 4 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,364 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 12 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.411 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +1.07 ± 0.75: an orderly event, more orderly than 98% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Locust Valley High School Falcons | 1 | 3.62 | Jack Denatale / Caroline Martocci Nick Chisari / Julianna Corso Torey Chisari / Bernadette Gunther | 68% | 6–0 (100%) | +1.9 |
| 2 | Rye High School Garnets | 2 | 3.61 | Constantyn Vandervoort / Cc Millard Matthew Wallace / Nicole Papert 1.49 Lise Powers / Madeline Saffer 1.39 | 67% | 4–2 (67%) | +0.0 |
| 3 | Rye Country Day School Wildcats | 3 | 2.23 | Lucie Rochat / Elysia Pil 0.70 Jaume Pujadas / Nicholas Sullivan 0.85 Josie Yeager / Will Dunn 0.44 0–4 Tyler Gilman / Andrew Lemley 1–1 | 35% | 1–5 (17%) | −1.1 |
| 5 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 4 | 2.12 school −0.13 | Lilly Jette / Ella Simmons Jack Adams / Josie Levy Mathew Sparaccio / Joshua Pavao | 30% | 1–5 (17%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Locust Valley High School | 3.62 | 6.62 | 6–0 | 4.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 9% |
| 2 | Rye High School | 3.61 | 3.61 | 4–2 | 4.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 5 | The Stony Brook School | 2.12 | 1.08 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.03 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 3 | Rye Country Day School | 2.23 | 0.86 | 1–5 | 2.1 | −1.37 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torey Chisari | Locust Valley High School | 0.57 | 3.57 | 6–0 | 4.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 9% |
| Constantyn Vandervoort | Rye High School | 0.68 | 0.68 | 4–2 | 4.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Lise Powers | Rye High School | 1.39 | 1.39 | 4–2 | 4.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Lilly Jette | The Stony Brook School | 1.19 | 0.15 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.03 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Jack Adams | The Stony Brook School | 0.28 | -0.76 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.03 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Mathew Sparaccio | The Stony Brook School | 0.57 | -0.47 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.03 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Jaume Pujadas | Rye Country Day School | 0.85 | -0.53 | 1–5 | 2.1 | −1.37 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Josie Yeager | Rye Country Day School | 0.44 | -2.56 | 0–4 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Locust Valley High School | Rye Country Day School | 75% | |
| 1 | 2 | Locust Valley High School | Rye High School | 51% | |
| 1 | 4 | Locust Valley High School | The Stony Brook School | 79% | |
| 1 | 5 | Rye High School | Rye Country Day School | 76% | |
| 1 | 7 | The Stony Brook School | Rye Country Day School | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 9 | Rye High School | The Stony Brook School | 76% | |
| 2 | 11 | Locust Valley High School | Rye Country Day School | 76% | |
| 2 | 12 | Locust Valley High School | Rye High School | 52% | |
| 2 | 14 | Locust Valley High School | The Stony Brook School | 77% | |
| 2 | 15 | Rye High School | Rye Country Day School | 75% | |
| 2 | 17 | Rye Country Day School | The Stony Brook School | 55% | |
| 2 | 19 | Rye High School | The Stony Brook School | 75% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Garnets | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Garnets | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Garnets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Locust Valley High School | Falcons | Jack Denatale '18 Nick Chisari '18 Torey Chisari '20 |
Caroline Martocci '18 Julianna Corso '18 Bernadette Gunther '18 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Constantyn Vandervoort '19 Lise Powers '20 Matthew Wallace '21 |
Cc Millard '19 Madeline Saffer '20 Nicole Papert '18 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Jaume Pujadas '20 Josie Yeager '20 Lucie Rochat '18 Tyler Gilman '20 |
Nicholas Sullivan '20 Will Dunn '18 Elysia Pil '19 Andrew Lemley '22 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Jack Adams '18 Lilly Jette '21 Mathew Sparaccio '20 |
Josie Levy '18 Ella Simmons '20 Joshua Pavao '20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
