| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Three Village CSD | Patriots | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,667 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 12 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.233 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.70 ± 0.62: an orderly event, more orderly than 92% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 1 | 6.29 school +0.21 | Emma Kaneti / Molly Banks 1.89 Emma Cowles / Lizzy Kaplan Carmen Cowles / Katie Lawless | 91% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.5 |
| 2 | Rye Country Day School Wildcats | 2 | 4.16 | Cooper Yeager / Zoe Athanason Andrew Rochat / Jack Briano 2–2 Lucie Rochat / Hugh Reynolds 2–2 Andrew Rochat / Will Dunn 2–0 Lucie Rochat / Ruth Reynolds 2–0 | 57% | 4–2 (67%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | St. John the Baptist Cougars | 3 | 2.67 | Finn Rauch / Kristi Dolan 1.20 Noah Scarpa / Wendy Quatrale 0.87 Robert Parente / Clare Guarascio | 28% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.3 |
| 4 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 4 | 2.50 school +0.11 | Thomas Derose / Ella Simmons 0.65 Matthew Sparacio / Isaac Voros Kadin Via / William Meitz 0.75 0–4 Kadin Via / Alyssa Jette 0.75 0–2 | 24% | 0–6 (0%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School | 6.29 | 9.29 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 2 | Rye Country Day School | 4.16 | 4.97 | 4–2 | 3.4 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 50% |
| 3 | St. John the Baptist | 2.67 | 3.11 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 4 | The Stony Brook School | 2.50 | -0.50 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | Mamaroneck High School | 1.84 | 4.84 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 57% |
| Carmen Cowles | Mamaroneck High School | 2.02 | 5.03 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 57% |
| Cooper Yeager | Rye Country Day School | 1.74 | 2.55 | 4–2 | 3.4 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 50% |
| Andrew Rochat | Rye Country Day School | 1.24 | 2.05 | 4–2 | 3.4 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 50% |
| Noah Scarpa | St. John the Baptist | 0.87 | 1.31 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Robert Parente | St. John the Baptist | 0.49 | 0.93 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Thomas Derose | The Stony Brook School | 0.65 | -2.35 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Kadin Via | The Stony Brook School | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Patriots | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Patriots | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Patriots | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Patriots | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Carmen Cowles '19 Emma Cowles '19 Emma Kaneti '18 |
Katie Lawless '16 Lizzy Kaplan '15 Molly Banks '19 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Andrew Rochat '16 Cooper Yeager '17 Lucie Rochat '18 |
Jack Briano '17 Will Dunn '18 Zoe Athanason '18 Nick Owens '19 Hugh Reynolds '16 Ruth Reynolds '17 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Finn Rauch '19 Noah Scarpa '17 Robert Parente '17 |
Kristi Dolan '16 Wendy Quatrale '17 Clare Guarascio '18 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Kadin Via '17 Matthew Sparacio '18 Thomas Derose '19 |
William Meitz '19 Alyssa Jette '19 Isaac Voros '17 Ella Simmons '19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
