St. John the Baptist '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 (fleet 0.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–43 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 2 | 7–12 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 0–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 12–26 against 11.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-01 | NYISA-SE League Team Race Champs & District Qual | skipper | 0.81 | 0.09 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2016-10-01 | NYISA-SE FallTeam Race Champs & District Qualifier | skipper | 0.88 | 1.27 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 2016-04-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship & Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.87 | 1.31 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 2015-10-31 | MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | skipper | 0.80 | 0.32 | 3–11 | 3.6 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2015-10-10 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.76 | 2.55 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.80 | 1.3 | 20% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE League Team Race Champs & District Qual | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| NYISA-SE Mallory Champs & District Qual | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.0 | 0.20 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE League Fall Fleet Racing Championships | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 0.45 |
| NYISA-SE FallTeam Race Champs & District Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime College Spring Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.2 | -0.05 |
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship & Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| 2016 MASSA District Mallory Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 17.5 | -2.89 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime Invitaional | Crew | A | — | — | — |
| MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA 2014 Fall Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 17 | 0% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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