SUNY Maritime Invitaional

HostSUNY Maritime College
Date09/26/2015
TypeTwo-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	16	16	32
2	Toms River North	Mariners	34	21	55
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams	35	31	66
4	Mamaroneck High School	Tigers	37	61	98
5	Bay Shore High School	Varsity	45	58	103
6	Locust Valley High School	Falcons	44	60	104
7	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	59	68	127
8	Rye High School	Garnets	54	82	136
9	The Stony Brook School	Bears	71	74	145
10	Broadneck High School	Bruins	67	78	145
11	St. John the Baptist	Cougars	81	65	146
12	Mattituck High School	Varsity	95	51	146
13	Syosset High School	Braves	84	73	157
14	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	89	76	165
15	Toms River South	Indians	85	100	185
16	Central Regional High School	Eagles	100	108	208
17	Chatham High School	Cougars	111	101	212
18	Princeton High School	Little Tigers	115	99	214
19	Three Village CSD	Varsity	110	109	219

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	2	2	3	2	1	4	2	16	Joe Laforgia '17 Chris Magno '17
Toms River North	Mariners	4	8	1	1	6	9	5	34	Sean Crabb '16 James Koerner '17
Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	13	5	5	5	1	1	35	Emily Haig '17 Rachel Lange '17
Mamaroneck High School	Tigers	1	11	2	3	3	5	12	37	Emma Kaneti '18 Katie Lawless '16
Locust Valley High School	Falcons	3	6	6	10	2	2	15	44	Jack Denatale '18 [1-7] Nick Chisari '18 [1-4] Caroline Martocci '18 [5-7]
Bay Shore High School	Varsity	10	4	4	7	11	3	6	45	Sean Linden '17 [1-7] Matt Taylor '17 [1-4] Olivia Salzman '17 [5-7]
Rye High School	Garnets	7	15	12	6	4	7	3	54	Cal Reynolds '16 [1-7] Caroline Costa '18 [1-2, 5-6] Cj Sculti '16 [3-4, 7]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	12	3	9	13	9	6	7	59	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-4] Cole Banias '17 [5-7] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-4]
Broadneck High School	Bruins	13	1	13	17	8	11	4	67	Adian Molesky '16 Kate Selley '16
The Stony Brook School	Bears	8	10	7	8	7	15	16	71	Joshua Martin '17 [1-6] Jack Adams '18 [7] Kimberly Cataudella '16 [1-6] Edward Feldt-Cipkin '16 [7]
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	6	5	17	11	12	10	DSQ	81	Finn Rauch '19 [1-7] Kristi Dolan '16 [1-6] Noah Scarpa '17 [7]
Syosset High School	Braves	11	9	18	14	15	8	9	84	Juliana Bianco '18 Camryn Smithwick '18
Toms River South	Indians	15	16	11	4	13	13	13	85	Joey Cashman '18 [1-7] Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Lauren Zelenak '17 [3-7]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	9	18	8	15	14	14	11	89	Shannon Groskoph '17 Katharine Srere '17
Mattituck High School	Varsity	16	12	15	16	10	18	8	95	Lauren Bihm '19 [1-4, 7] Austin Branker '17 [5-6] Andy Righi '19 [1-4, 7]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	17	14	10	9	16	17	17	100	Patience Harrington '17 [1-7] Mcaleavey Gwen '17 [1-4] Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [5-7]
Three Village CSD	Varsity	OCS	7	16	19	19	19	10	110	Victor Tarjan '16 Andrew Futcher '16
Chatham High School	Cougars	18	19	14	12	18	16	14	111	Juliana Marino '16 [1-6] Olivia Rondepierre '17 [7] Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [1-2, 5-6] Jillian Puglisi '17 [3-4, 7]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	14	17	19	18	17	12	18	115	Nathan Drezner '16 [1-2, 5-6] Ashley Dart '17 [3-4, 7] Sophie Corrodi '16 [1-2, 5-6] Christian Swanke '19 [3-4, 7]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	2	2	6	1	1	2	2	16	Michael Ehnot '18 Mark Iorio '16
Toms River North	Mariners	4	3	3	4	3	3	1	21	Eddie Harrison '18 Mia Porter '18
Southern Regional High School	Rams	15	1	1	2	2	7	3	31	Tom Green '19 [1-7] Michael Scales '16 [1-4] Emily Micciche '17 [5-7]
Mattituck High School	Varsity	11	9	2	14	4	6	5	51	Sarah Bihm '19 Miranda Sanino '16
Bay Shore High School	Varsity	3	4	15	12	8	10	6	58	Emmett Healy '17 [1-7] Ethan Day '16 [1-4] Brandon Tenhoopen '17 [5-7]
Locust Valley High School	Falcons	1	11	9	5	13	12	9	60	Cormac Murphy '18 [1-7] Caroline Martocci '18 [1-4] Alesandra Sager '18 [5-7]
Mamaroneck High School	Tigers	7	8	5	9	6	18	8	61	Hector Mckemmey '16 Guy Santee '19
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	10	14	4	11	9	1	16	65	Kai Rauch '15 [1-6] Robert Parente '17 [7] Wendy Quatrale '17 [1-5] Kyra Gilmore '17 [6-7]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	13	6	8	3	15	4	19	68	Margaret Maccormack '17 Catherine Cooke '17
Syosset High School	Braves	5	12	11	13	12	5	15	73	Justin Smith '18 John Devito '18
The Stony Brook School	Bears	8	17	10	7	17	8	7	74	Kadin Via '17 [1-6] Thomas Derose '19 [7] Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-6] Henry Bennett '19 [7]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	9	5	18	18	11	11	4	76	Patrick Murray '19 William Przedpelski '17
Broadneck High School	Bruins	16	10	7	8	5	19	13	78	Max Ryder '16 [1-7] Brigid Mckay '17 [1-2] Allison Gingerich '17 [3-7]
Rye High School	Garnets	6	7	14	DSQ	7	17	11	82	Nick Davis '16 [1-7] Elizabeth Brett '16 [1-2, 5-7] Constantyn Vandervoort '19 [3-4]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	14	16	13	15	10	14	17	99	Harrison Barfield '17 Benjamin Drezner '19
Toms River South	Indians	17	18	12	10	14	15	14	100	Zach Higham '19 [1-2] Willow Wahlers '17 [3-7] Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Paige Zelenak '19 [3-7]
Chatham High School	Cougars	12	13	19	17	19	9	12	101	Marisa Marino '17 [1-7] Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2, 5-7] Olivia Rondepierre '17 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	19	15	16	6	18	16	18	108	John Macmoyle '17 [1-4] River Dixon '18 [5-7] Mcaleavey Michael '19 [1-2, 7] River Dixon '18 [3-4] John Macmoyle '17 [5-6]
Three Village CSD	Varsity	18	19	17	16	16	13	10	109	Alexander Langrock '17 Stephen Fisher '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Bay Shore High School Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Broadneck High School Bruins	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Central Regional High School Eagles	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Chatham High School Cougars	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Locust Valley High School Falcons	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Mamaroneck High School Tigers	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Mattituck High School Varsity	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Princeton High School Little Tigers	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Rye High School Garnets	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Southern Regional High School Rams	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
St. John the Baptist Cougars	13	13	15	15	17	17	19
Summit High School Hilltoppers	14	14	16	16	18	18	1
Syosset High School Braves	15	15	17	17	19	19	2
The Stony Brook School Bears	16	16	18	18	1	1	3
Three Village CSD Varsity	17	17	19	19	2	2	4
Toms River North Mariners	18	18	1	1	3	3	5
Toms River South Indians	19	19	2	2	4	4	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Bay Shore High School Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Central Regional High School Eagles	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Chatham High School Cougars	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Locust Valley High School Falcons	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Mamaroneck High School Tigers	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Mattituck High School Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Princeton High School Little Tigers	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Rye High School Garnets	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Southern Regional High School Rams	13	13	15	15	17	17	19
St. John the Baptist Cougars	14	14	16	16	18	18	1
Summit High School Hilltoppers	15	15	17	17	19	19	2
Syosset High School Braves	16	16	18	18	1	1	3
The Stony Brook School Bears	17	17	19	19	2	2	4
Three Village CSD Varsity	18	18	1	1	3	3	5
Toms River North Mariners	19	19	2	2	4	4	6
Toms River South Indians	1	1	3	3	5	5	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bay Shore High School	Sean Linden '17 [1-7]	Matt Taylor '17 [1-4] Olivia Salzman '17 [5-7]
Varsity	Emmett Healy '17 [1-7]	Ethan Day '16 [1-4] Brandon Tenhoopen '17 [5-7]
Broadneck High School	Adian Molesky '16	Kate Selley '16
Bruins	Max Ryder '16 [1-7]	Brigid Mckay '17 [1-2] Allison Gingerich '17 [3-7]
Central Regional High School	Patience Harrington '17 [1-7]	Mcaleavey Gwen '17 [1-4] Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [5-7]
Eagles	John Macmoyle '17 [1-4] River Dixon '18 [5-7]	Mcaleavey Michael '19 [1-2, 7] River Dixon '18 [3-4] John Macmoyle '17 [5-6]
Chatham High School	Juliana Marino '16 [1-6] Olivia Rondepierre '17 [7]	Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [1-2, 5-6] Jillian Puglisi '17 [3-4, 7]
Cougars	Marisa Marino '17 [1-7]	Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2, 5-7] Olivia Rondepierre '17 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Chris Magno '17
Colts	Michael Ehnot '18	Mark Iorio '16
Donovan Catholic High School	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-4] Cole Banias '17 [5-7]	Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-4]
Griffins	Margaret Maccormack '17	Catherine Cooke '17
Locust Valley High School	Jack Denatale '18 [1-7]	Nick Chisari '18 [1-4] Caroline Martocci '18 [5-7]
Falcons	Cormac Murphy '18 [1-7]	Caroline Martocci '18 [1-4] Alesandra Sager '18 [5-7]
Mamaroneck High School	Emma Kaneti '18	Katie Lawless '16
Tigers	Hector Mckemmey '16	Guy Santee '19
Mattituck High School	Lauren Bihm '19 [1-4, 7] Austin Branker '17 [5-6]	Andy Righi '19 [1-4, 7]
Varsity	Sarah Bihm '19	Miranda Sanino '16
Princeton High School	Nathan Drezner '16 [1-2, 5-6] Ashley Dart '17 [3-4, 7]	Sophie Corrodi '16 [1-2, 5-6] Christian Swanke '19 [3-4, 7]
Little Tigers	Harrison Barfield '17	Benjamin Drezner '19
Rye High School	Cal Reynolds '16 [1-7]	Caroline Costa '18 [1-2, 5-6] Cj Sculti '16 [3-4, 7]
Garnets	Nick Davis '16 [1-7]	Elizabeth Brett '16 [1-2, 5-7] Constantyn Vandervoort '19 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Rachel Lange '17
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-7]	Michael Scales '16 [1-4] Emily Micciche '17 [5-7]
St. John the Baptist	Finn Rauch '19 [1-7]	Kristi Dolan '16 [1-6] Noah Scarpa '17 [7]
Cougars	Kai Rauch '15 [1-6] Robert Parente '17 [7]	Wendy Quatrale '17 [1-5] Kyra Gilmore '17 [6-7]
Summit High School	Shannon Groskoph '17	Katharine Srere '17
Hilltoppers	Patrick Murray '19	William Przedpelski '17
Syosset High School	Juliana Bianco '18	Camryn Smithwick '18
Braves	Justin Smith '18	John Devito '18
The Stony Brook School	Joshua Martin '17 [1-6] Jack Adams '18 [7]	Kimberly Cataudella '16 [1-6] Edward Feldt-Cipkin '16 [7]
Bears	Kadin Via '17 [1-6] Thomas Derose '19 [7]	Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-6] Henry Bennett '19 [7]
Three Village CSD	Victor Tarjan '16	Andrew Futcher '16
Varsity	Alexander Langrock '17	Stephen Fisher '16
Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	James Koerner '17
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Mia Porter '18
Toms River South	Joey Cashman '18 [1-7]	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Lauren Zelenak '17 [3-7]
Indians	Zach Higham '19 [1-2] Willow Wahlers '17 [3-7]	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Paige Zelenak '19 [3-7]

Conditions — 09/26/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1030.9 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.4 kn

avg · max 10.8 kn

Gusts to 22.0 kn

From ENE (71°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1030.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at SUNY Maritime College: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at SUNY Maritime College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at SUNY Maritime College, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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