NYISA-SE League Fall Fleet Racing Championships

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 19 21 40
2 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 22 20 42
3 Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 23 48 71
4 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 31 44 75
5 St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 41 38 79
6 Syosset High School Syosset High School Braves 51 29 80
7 Fox Lane High School Fox Lane High School Gabriella DelBello 42 45 87
8 Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 59 43 102
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 2 3 5 1 4 2 1 19 Lizzy Kaplan '19
Josua Desieno '16
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 3 1 1 7 2 1 4 3 22 Michelle Lahrkamp '19
Audrey Fung '20
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 2 3 4 2 5 2 1 4 23 Sean Linden '17 [1-8]
Kevin Souhrada '19 [1-3]
Emma Beqaj '20 [4-6]
Olivia Salzman '17 [7-8]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 5 5 2 3 3 3 3 7 31 Joshua Martin '17
Konstantin Sturm '19
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 4 6 5 4 4 6 6 6 41 Kai Rauch '19 [1-4]
Finn Rauch '19 [5-8]
Wendy Quatrale '17 [1-4]
Clare Guarascio '18 [5-8]
Fox Lane High School Fox Lane High School Gabriella DelBello 7 7 6 1 7 7 5 2 42 Gabriella Delbello '19
Allan Dillon '20
Syosset High School Syosset High School Braves 6 4 7 6 8 8 7 5 51 Justin Smith '18 [1-4, 6-8]
Chloe Vandorn '18 [5]
Neil Sawhney '20 [1-2, 4-5, 7-8]
Chloe Vandorn '18 [3, 6]
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 8 8 8 8 6 5 8 8 59 Austin Branker '17
Laryssa Andreadis '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 3 2 1 3 2 1 5 3 20 Lindsay Powers '17 [1-8]
Lise Powers '20 [1-4]
Nicole Papert '18 [5-8]
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 1 2 1 4 3 4 5 21 Charlie Roseberry '20
Guy Santee '19
Syosset High School Syosset High School Braves 5 3 4 5 8 2 1 1 29 Juliana Bianco '18
Camryn Smithwick '18
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 2 4 3 6 7 8 6 2 38 Noah Scarpa '17
Kyra Gilmore '17
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Tuckers 4 7 7 8 5 6 2 4 43 Francesco Sanino '19
Nick Andreadis '18
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 6 5 6 2 6 4 8 7 44 Kadin Via '17 [1-2, 4-6, 8]
Julide Marx '18 [3, 7]
Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-2, 4-6, 8]
Nicholas Buscemi '18 [3, 7]
Fox Lane High School Fox Lane High School Gabriella DelBello 7 8 5 4 1 5 7 8 45 Ben Gershman '17
Tj Stoker '20
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 8 6 8 7 3 7 3 6 48 Brandon Tenhoopen '17 [1-8]
Rudy Caligure '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Olivia Salzman '17 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bay Shore High SchoolBay Shore High School Marauders11223344
Fox Lane High SchoolFox Lane High School Gabriella DelBello22334455
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers33445566
Mattituck High SchoolMattituck High School Tuckers44556677
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets55667788
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars66778811
Syosset High SchoolSyosset High School Braves77881122
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears88112233

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bay Shore High SchoolBay Shore High School Marauders99101011111212
Fox Lane High SchoolFox Lane High School Gabriella DelBello1010111112121313
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers1111121213131414
Mattituck High SchoolMattituck High School Tuckers1212131314141515
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets1313141415151616
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars14141515161699
Syosset High SchoolSyosset High School Braves15151616991010
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears16169910101111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Sean Linden '17 [1-8] Kevin Souhrada '19 [1-3]
Emma Beqaj '20 [4-6]
Olivia Salzman '17 [7-8]
Marauders Brandon Tenhoopen '17 [1-8] Rudy Caligure '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Olivia Salzman '17 [3-4]
Fox Lane High School Fox Lane High School Gabriella Delbello '19 Allan Dillon '20
Gabriella DelBello Ben Gershman '17 Tj Stoker '20
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Lizzy Kaplan '19 Josua Desieno '16
Tigers Charlie Roseberry '20 Guy Santee '19
Mattituck High School Mattituck High School Austin Branker '17 Laryssa Andreadis '18
Tuckers Francesco Sanino '19 Nick Andreadis '18
Rye High School Rye High School Michelle Lahrkamp '19 Audrey Fung '20
Garnets Lindsay Powers '17 [1-8] Lise Powers '20 [1-4]
Nicole Papert '18 [5-8]
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Kai Rauch '19 [1-4]
Finn Rauch '19 [5-8]
Wendy Quatrale '17 [1-4]
Clare Guarascio '18 [5-8]
Cougars Noah Scarpa '17 Kyra Gilmore '17
Syosset High School Syosset High School Justin Smith '18 [1-4, 6-8]
Chloe Vandorn '18 [5]
Neil Sawhney '20 [1-2, 4-5, 7-8]
Chloe Vandorn '18 [3, 6]
Braves Juliana Bianco '18 Camryn Smithwick '18
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Joshua Martin '17 Konstantin Sturm '19
Bears Kadin Via '17 [1-2, 4-6, 8]
Julide Marx '18 [3, 7]
Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-2, 4-6, 8]
Nicholas Buscemi '18 [3, 7]

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1019.4 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From NNE (12°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1019.4 hPa Rain0.07 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at USMMA, Kings Point: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at USMMA, Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at USMMA, Kings Point, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →