MASSA 2014 Fall Team Race Champs

HostRochester Canoe Club
Date10/25/2014
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses	18–2
2	Severn School	Admirals	14–6
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	Varsity	10–7
4	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	11–9
5	Annapolis High School	Panthers	10–10
6	Key School	Zags	8–9
7	Mercy High School	Varsity	3–14
8	St. John the Baptist	Varsity	0–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 339 team race matches sailed before 2014-10-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 61 of 74 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.430 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	1	6.91	Hector Guzman / Claire Rae 2.87 Jack Elkin / Eric Demario Alex Moreno / Annabel Carrington 1.27	70%	18–2 (90%)	+3.9
2	Severn School Admirals	3	6.30	Floyd Nick / Morgan Ian White Emma / Blair Reilly Connor Bayless / Caroline Mcneil 6–6 Connor Bayless / Stephanie Houck 8–0	59%	14–6 (70%)	+2.3
3	Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity	5	5.63	Dreugh Phillips / Sarah Smith Darden Purrington / Nick Baker Victor Layne / Daniel Vail	53%	10–7 (59%)	+1.0
4	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	6	5.96	Gray Kiger / Alek Sas James Whitmore / Marshall Mccraw Jessica Williams / Alexander Singh	51%	11–9 (55%)	+0.8
5	Annapolis High School Panthers	4	6.28 school +0.38	Kyle Comerford / Kimberly Leonard 1.66 Porter Kavle / Lexi Pline Remington King / Sarah Smith	57%	10–10 (50%)	−1.5
6	Key School Zags	2	5.88	Christian Filter / Declan Lombard Bryan Bay / Dennis Norman Harrison Koller / Annabel Thompson 7–6 Harrison Koller / Jacob Ostenso 1–3	59%	8–9 (47%)	−2.0
7	Mercy High School Varsity	7	4.82	Peter Mcmillan / Bridgit Patterson Ava Esquier / Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom Bridget Lawless / Brian Baker 1.59	38%	3–14 (18%)	−3.5
8	St. John the Baptist Varsity	8	2.31	Kristi Dolan / Emily Huttie Noah Scarpa / Wendy Quatrale James Gilmore Iii / Kristi Dolan 0–14 James Gilmore Iii / Robert Parente 0–3	7%	0–17 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Christchurch School	6.91	8.69	18–2	14.0	+1.78	3.4	3%
2	Severn School	6.30	7.01	14–6	11.7	+0.71	0.9	20%
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	5.63	5.99	10–7	9.0	+0.36	0.2	40%
4	Norfolk Academy	5.96	6.20	11–9	10.2	+0.24	0.1	44%
5	Annapolis High School	6.28	5.85	10–10	11.5	−0.43	0.4	83%
6	Key School	5.88	5.13	8–9	10.0	−0.76	0.8	91%
7	Mercy High School	4.82	2.99	3–14	6.5	−1.84	3.2	99%
8	St. John the Baptist	2.31	-0.69	0–17	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Alex Moreno	Christchurch School	1.27	3.04	18–2	14.0	+1.78	3.4	3%
Floyd Nick	Severn School	2.12	2.82	14–6	11.7	+0.71	0.9	20%
White Emma	Severn School	1.49	2.20	14–6	11.7	+0.71	0.9	20%
Remington King	Annapolis High School	1.19	0.76	10–10	11.5	−0.43	0.4	83%
Ava Esquier	Mercy High School	1.47	-0.37	3–14	6.5	−1.84	3.2	99%
Noah Scarpa	St. John the Baptist	0.43	-2.56	0–17	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Norfolk Academy	Mercy High School	67%
1	2	Norfolk Collegiate School	Key School	43%	upset
1	3	Christchurch School	Severn School	58%
1	4	Annapolis High School	St. John the Baptist	96%
1	5	Key School	Mercy High School	70%
1	6	Norfolk Academy	Christchurch School	33%	upset
1	7	Norfolk Collegiate School	St. John the Baptist	93%
1	8	Annapolis High School	Severn School	49%	upset
1	9	Christchurch School	Key School	66%
1	10	Mercy High School	St. John the Baptist	87%
1	11	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	59%
1	12	Norfolk Collegiate School	Annapolis High School	37%	upset
1	13	Christchurch School	St. John the Baptist	97%
1	14	Severn School	Key School	58%
1	15	Norfolk Collegiate School	Mercy High School	65%
1	16	Norfolk Academy	Annapolis High School	43%	upset
1	17	Severn School	St. John the Baptist	95%
1	18	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	72%
1	19	Norfolk Academy	Key School	53%
1	20	Annapolis High School	Mercy High School	75%
1	21	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	61%
1	22	Norfolk Academy	St. John the Baptist	94%
1	23	Christchurch School	Mercy High School	83%
1	24	Annapolis High School	Key School	57%
1	25	Norfolk Academy	Norfolk Collegiate School	55%
1	26	Severn School	Mercy High School	75%
1	27	Key School	St. John the Baptist	96%
1	28	Christchurch School	Annapolis High School	62%
1	57	Christchurch School	Annapolis High School	63%
1	58	Norfolk Academy	Severn School	44%	upset
1	59	Christchurch School	Norfolk Academy	68%
1	60	Severn School	Annapolis High School	51%
1	61	Norfolk Academy	Annapolis High School	45%	upset
1	62	Christchurch School	Severn School	62%
1	63	Norfolk Collegiate School	St. John the Baptist	92%
1	64	Key School	Mercy High School	71%
1	65	Norfolk Collegiate School	Mercy High School	66%
1	66	Key School	St. John the Baptist	96%
1	67	Norfolk Collegiate School	Key School	44%	upset
1	68	Mercy High School	St. John the Baptist	86%
2	29	Norfolk Academy	Mercy High School	70%
2	30	Key School	Norfolk Collegiate School	56%
2	31	Severn School	Christchurch School	38%	upset
2	32	Annapolis High School	St. John the Baptist	95%
2	33	Key School	Mercy High School	71%
2	34	Christchurch School	Norfolk Academy	68%
2	35	Norfolk Collegiate School	St. John the Baptist	92%
2	36	Severn School	Annapolis High School	51%
2	37	Christchurch School	Key School	67%
2	38	Mercy High School	St. John the Baptist	86%
2	39	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	57%
2	40	Annapolis High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	61%
2	41	Christchurch School	St. John the Baptist	97%
2	42	Severn School	Key School	60%
2	43	Norfolk Collegiate School	Mercy High School	66%
2	44	Annapolis High School	Norfolk Academy	56%
2	45	Severn School	St. John the Baptist	95%
2	46	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	72%
2	47	Key School	Norfolk Academy	46%	upset
2	48	Annapolis High School	Mercy High School	75%
2	49	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	62%
2	50	Norfolk Academy	St. John the Baptist	94%
2	51	Christchurch School	Mercy High School	84%
2	52	Annapolis High School	Key School	56%
2	53	Norfolk Collegiate School	Norfolk Academy	45%	upset
2	54	Severn School	Mercy High School	76%
2	55	Key School	St. John the Baptist	96%
2	56	Christchurch School	Annapolis High School	63%
2	69	Christchurch School	Annapolis High School	63%
2	70	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	57%
2	71	Christchurch School	Norfolk Academy	68%
2	72	Annapolis High School	Severn School	48%	upset
2	73	Norfolk Academy	Annapolis High School	45%	upset
2	74	Christchurch School	Severn School	62%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
2	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
3	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5
4	Panthers	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
5	Zags	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
6	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Seahorses	1-4-6
7	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
8	Panthers	1-3-6	def.	Admirals	2-4-5
9	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
10	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
11	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
12	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Panthers	1-5-6
13	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
14	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
15	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
16	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
17	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
18	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Varsity	2-3-6
19	Bulldogs	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Zags	3-4-5
20	Panthers	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
21	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
22	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
23	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
24	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Zags	3-4-5
25	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
26	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
27	Zags	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6 DNS
28	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Panthers	2-3-6
57	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Panthers	3-5-6
58	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Admirals	1-4-6
59	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
60	Admirals	1-3-4	def.	Panthers	2-5-6
61	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
62	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Admirals	4-5-6
63	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
64	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
65	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
66	Zags	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
67	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Zags	2-4-6
68	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
29	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
30	Zags	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
31	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Seahorses	3-4-6
32	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
33	Zags	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
34	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
35	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
36	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
37	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
38	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
39	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
40	Panthers	1-4-5	def.	Varsity	2-3-6
41	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
42	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
43	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
44	Panthers	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
45	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
46	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
47	Zags	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
48	Panthers	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
49	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
50	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
51	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
52	Panthers	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
53	Varsity	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
54	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
55	Zags	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
56	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Panthers	3-5-6
69	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Panthers	4-5-6
70	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
71	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
72	Panthers	2-3-4	def.	Admirals	1-5-6
73	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
74	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Alex Moreno '15 Hector Guzman '16 Jack Elkin '15	Annabel Carrington '15 Claire Rae '16 Eric Demario '18
Severn School	Admirals	Connor Bayless '17 Floyd Nick '15 White Emma '15	Stephanie Houck '17 Caroline Mcneil '18 Morgan Ian '15 Blair Reilly '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Varsity	Darden Purrington '16 Dreugh Phillips '16 Victor Layne '16	Nick Baker '16 Sarah Smith '18 Daniel Vail '17
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Gray Kiger '16 James Whitmore '16 Jessica Williams '16	Alek Sas '18 Marshall Mccraw '16 Alexander Singh '15
Annapolis High School	Panthers	Kyle Comerford '15 Porter Kavle '18 Remington King '17	Kimberly Leonard '18 Lexi Pline '15 Sarah Smith '16
Key School	Zags	Bryan Bay '16 Christian Filter '16 Harrison Koller '17	Dennis Norman '16 Declan Lombard '17 Annabel Thompson '15 Jacob Ostenso '15
Mercy High School	Varsity	Ava Esquier '16 Bridget Lawless '17 Peter Mcmillan '15	Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17 Brian Baker '15 Bridgit Patterson '18
St. John the Baptist	Varsity	James Gilmore Iii '15 Kristi Dolan '16 Noah Scarpa '17	Kristi Dolan '16 Robert Parente '17 Emily Huttie '17 Wendy Quatrale '17

Conditions — 10/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 74% · Pressure 1004.9 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.5 kn

avg · max 16.9 kn

Gusts to 32.3 kn

From WSW (238°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1004.9 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Rochester Canoe Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Rochester Canoe Club in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rochester Canoe Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Rochester Canoe Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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