| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Syosset High School | Braves | 1–4 |
| 5 |  |
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Three Village CSD | Patriots | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,395 team race matches sailed before 2015-10-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 18 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.532 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.83 ± 0.75: an orderly event, more orderly than 97% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 1 | 3.51 | Emma Kaneti / Katie Lawless Will Mckeige / Josua Desieno Hector Mckemmey / Guy Santee | 76% | 5–0 (100%) | +1.2 |
| 2 | St. John the Baptist Cougars | 3 | 2.34 school −0.13 | Finn Rauch / Kristi Dolan Kai Rauch / Kyra Gilmore Noah Scarpa / Emily Huttie 0.76 | 52% | 4–1 (80%) | +1.4 |
| 3 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 4 | 2.18 | Joshua Martin / Kimberly Cataudella Kadin Via / Matthew Sparacio Thomas Derose / Henry Bennett | 49% | 3–2 (60%) | +0.6 |
| 4 | Syosset High School Braves | 5 | 1.76 | Juliana Bianco / Camryn Smithwick Justin Smith / Neil Sawhney Chloe Vandorn / John Devito | 39% | 3–4 (43%) | +0.2 |
| 5 | Bay Shore High School Marauders | 2 | 2.48 | Sean Linden / Joe Welling Emmett Healy / Karla Alas Brandon Tenhoopen / Matt Taylor | 57% | 2–5 (29%) | −2.0 |
| 6 | Three Village CSD Patriots | 6 | 1.52 | Simon Allam / Alex Wiggins Philip Foucher / Joe Pisciotta Natalia Newton / Danyte Reisinger | 34% | 1–6 (14%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School | 3.51 | 6.51 | 5–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 25% |
| 2 | St. John the Baptist | 2.34 | 4.13 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.80 | 1.3 | 20% |
| 3 | The Stony Brook School | 2.18 | 2.81 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 4 | Syosset High School | 1.76 | 1.95 | 3–4 | 2.8 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 6 | Three Village CSD | 1.52 | 0.01 | 1–6 | 2.4 | −1.51 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 5 | Bay Shore High School | 2.48 | 0.85 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −1.63 | 1.8 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mckeige | Mamaroneck High School | 1.02 | 4.03 | 5–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 25% |
| Hector Mckemmey | Mamaroneck High School | 0.66 | 3.66 | 5–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 25% |
| Kai Rauch | St. John the Baptist | 0.74 | 2.53 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.80 | 1.3 | 20% |
| Noah Scarpa | St. John the Baptist | 0.76 | 2.55 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.80 | 1.3 | 20% |
| Joshua Martin | The Stony Brook School | 0.99 | 1.63 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Kadin Via | The Stony Brook School | 0.45 | 1.08 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Thomas Derose | The Stony Brook School | 0.41 | 1.04 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Juliana Bianco | Syosset High School | 0.67 | 0.85 | 3–4 | 2.8 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Chloe Vandorn | Syosset High School | -0.00 | 0.19 | 3–4 | 2.8 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Simon Allam | Three Village CSD | -0.13 | -1.64 | 1–6 | 2.4 | −1.51 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Philip Foucher | Three Village CSD | 0.61 | -0.90 | 1–6 | 2.4 | −1.51 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Natalia Newton | Three Village CSD | 0.61 | -0.90 | 1–6 | 2.4 | −1.51 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Emmett Healy | Bay Shore High School | 0.48 | -1.15 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −1.63 | 1.8 | 98% |
| Brandon Tenhoopen | Bay Shore High School | 0.09 | -1.54 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −1.63 | 1.8 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. John the Baptist | Syosset High School | 64% | ||
| 2 | Mamaroneck High School | The Stony Brook School | 74% | ||
| 3 | Bay Shore High School | Three Village CSD | 68% | ||
| 4 | Mamaroneck High School | St. John the Baptist | 71% | ||
| 5 | Three Village CSD | Syosset High School | 45% | upset | |
| 6 | The Stony Brook School | Bay Shore High School | 46% | upset | |
| 7 | Mamaroneck High School | Three Village CSD | 83% | ||
| 8 | St. John the Baptist | The Stony Brook School | 53% | ||
| 9 | Syosset High School | Bay Shore High School | 36% | upset | |
| 10 | The Stony Brook School | Three Village CSD | 64% | ||
| 11 | Mamaroneck High School | Syosset High School | 81% | ||
| 12 | St. John the Baptist | Bay Shore High School | 48% | upset | |
| 13 | The Stony Brook School | Syosset High School | 60% | ||
| 14 | St. John the Baptist | Three Village CSD | 66% | ||
| 15 | Mamaroneck High School | Bay Shore High School | 70% | ||
| 1 | 16 | Bay Shore High School | Three Village CSD | 68% | |
| 2 | 17 | Syosset High School | Bay Shore High School | 35% | upset |
| 3 | 18 | Syosset High School | Three Village CSD | 55% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Braves | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Marauders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Patriots | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Braves | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Braves | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Marauders | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Braves | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Braves | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Marauders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Patriots | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Braves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Braves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Emma Kaneti '18 Hector Mckemmey '16 Will Mckeige '16 |
Katie Lawless '16 Guy Santee '19 Josua Desieno '16 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Finn Rauch '19 Kai Rauch '15 Noah Scarpa '17 |
Kristi Dolan '16 Kyra Gilmore '17 Emily Huttie '17 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Joshua Martin '17 Kadin Via '17 Thomas Derose '19 |
Kimberly Cataudella '16 Matthew Sparacio '18 Henry Bennett '19 |
|
Syosset High School | Braves | Chloe Vandorn '18 Juliana Bianco '18 Justin Smith '18 |
John Devito '18 Camryn Smithwick '18 Neil Sawhney '20 |
|
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | Brandon Tenhoopen '17 Emmett Healy '17 Sean Linden '17 |
Matt Taylor '17 Karla Alas '17 Joe Welling '20 |
|
Three Village CSD | Patriots | Natalia Newton '20 Philip Foucher '18 Simon Allam '18 |
Danyte Reisinger '15 Joe Pisciotta '17 Alex Wiggins '18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
