| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,535 team race matches sailed before 2016-10-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 12 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.202 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.65 ± 0.60: an orderly event, more orderly than 89% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 1 | 6.72 school +0.24 | Emma Cowles / Guy Santee 2.18 Carmen Cowles / Josua Desieno 2.31 Lizzy Kaplan / Eloise Smith | 92% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.5 |
| 2 | Rye High School Garnets | 2 | 4.75 | Michelle Lahrkamp / Audrey Fung Carina Becker / Elliot Taft 2–2 Madeline Saffer / Caelan Desmond 2–2 Carina Becker / Madeline Saffer 2–0 Lindsay Powers / Caelan Desmond 2–0 | 60% | 4–2 (67%) | +0.4 |
| 3 | St. John the Baptist Cougars | 3 | 3.01 school +0.09 | Kai Rauch / Wendy Quatrale Finn Rauch / Clare Guarascio 1.18 Noah Scarpa / Kyra Gilmore 0.88 | 28% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.3 |
| 4 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 4 | 2.68 | Joshua Martin / Konstantin Sturm 1.40 Matthew Sparacio / Michael Bilfinger 0.84 Julide Marx / Nicholas Buscemi | 20% | 0–6 (0%) | −1.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School | 6.72 | 9.72 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| 2 | Rye High School | 4.75 | 5.43 | 4–2 | 3.6 | +0.68 | 0.2 | 57% |
| 3 | St. John the Baptist | 3.01 | 3.40 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 4 | The Stony Brook School | 2.68 | -0.32 | 0–6 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | Mamaroneck High School | 2.18 | 5.18 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| Carmen Cowles | Mamaroneck High School | 2.31 | 5.31 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| Lizzy Kaplan | Mamaroneck High School | 1.81 | 4.81 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| Noah Scarpa | St. John the Baptist | 0.88 | 1.27 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 57% |
| Madeline Saffer | Rye High School | 0.75 | 1.13 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.38 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Joshua Martin | The Stony Brook School | 1.40 | -1.60 | 0–6 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Julide Marx | The Stony Brook School | 0.33 | -2.67 | 0–6 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Garnets | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Tigers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Carmen Cowles '19 Emma Cowles '19 Lizzy Kaplan '19 |
Josua Desieno '16 Guy Santee '19 Eloise Smith '18 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Carina Becker '17 Lindsay Powers '17 Madeline Saffer '20 Michelle Lahrkamp '19 |
Madeline Saffer '20 Elliot Taft '19 Caelan Desmond '20 Audrey Fung '20 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Finn Rauch '19 Kai Rauch '19 Noah Scarpa '17 |
Clare Guarascio '18 Wendy Quatrale '17 Kyra Gilmore '17 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Joshua Martin '17 Julide Marx '18 Matthew Sparacio '18 |
Konstantin Sturm '19 Nicholas Buscemi '18 Michael Bilfinger '17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
