Rye High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 (fleet 0.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 9–6 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 | 2 | — | 9–6 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 9–6 against 8.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | crew | 1.63 | 1.98 | 5–4 | 4.6 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2016-10-01 | NYISA-SE FallTeam Race Champs & District Qualifier | crew | 0.75 | 1.43 | 4–2 | 3.6 | +0.68 | 0.2 | 57% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE FallTeam Race Champs & District Qualifier | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| 2016 SUNY Maritime Fall Invitational | Crew | A, B | 4 | 5.5 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Caelan Desmond |  The Williams School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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