SUNY Maritime MASSA Fall Invitational

HostSUNY Maritime
Date09/30/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	16	18	34
2	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	21	31	52
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams	41	24	65
4	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	47	30	77
5	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	52	25	77
6	Toms River North	Mariners	34	46	80
7	The Stony Brook School	Bears	44	41	85
8	St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute	Marauders	34	54	88
9	Rye High School	Garnets	66	42	108
10	Toms River South	Indians	53	59	112
11	Central Regional High School	Eagles	57	73	130
12	Northport HS	Northport VS	59	85	144
13	Three Village CSD	Patriots	82	65	147
14	St. John the Baptist	Cougars	77	76	153
15	Harborfields	Harborfield Varsity	70	87	157
16	Bellport Senior High School	Varsity	72	99	171
17	Bay Shore High School	Marauders	99	92	191
18	Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	103	88	191

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	1	2	2	5	2	4	16	Michael Ehnot '18 Justin Modin '19
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	2	5	1	3	5	5	21	Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute	Marauders	6	9	11	6	1	1	34	Robert Robinson '18 Garrett Grenauer '20
Toms River North	Mariners	DSQ	1	4	2	BKD	2	34	Eddie Harrison '18 Evan Harrison '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	OCS	3	4	4	8	41	Dana Haig '18 [1-6] Tom Green '19 [1-2] Brielle Willoughby '20 [3-4] Nate Ertle '20 [5-6]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	4	7	8	11	11	3	44	Thomas Derose '19 Ella Simmons '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	6	5	12	6	9	47	Julia Laforgia '19 Kailin Burns-Cohen '18
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	OCS	4	7	1	10	11	52	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-6] Taylor Rice '19 [1-2, 5-6] Oliva Pasquale '19 [3-4]
Toms River South	Indians	5	OCS	6	13	3	7	53	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Central Regional High School	Eagles	7	11	9	10	8	12	57	Peter Taboada '20 Dino Nicastro '20
Northport HS	Northport VS	BKD	3	12	15	13	6	59	Michael Preston '18 [1-2, 5-6] Connor Burns '22 [3-4] Jackson Riordan '22 [1-2, 5-6] Ana Honoria '18 [3-4]
Rye High School	Garnets	8	12	10	9	14	13	66	Lise Powers '20 [1-2, 5-6] Gruber Jack '21 [3-4] Cc Millard '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Harborfields	Harborfield Varsity	13	10	13	7	12	15	70	Max Hafen '18 Caroline Greco '21
Bellport Senior High School	Varsity	11	15	15	14	7	10	72	Finn Rauch '19 Luca Sharpf '20
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	10	8	14	16	15	14	77	Clare Guarascio '18 [1-4] Emma Worthington '19 [5-6] Kaitlyn Brzostek '19 [1-4] Margaret Scott '19 [5-6]
Three Village CSD	Patriots	12	14	16	8	16	16	82	Alex Wiggins '18 Philip Foucher '18
Bay Shore High School	Marauders	14	16	17	18	17	17	99	Emma Beqaj '20 [1-2] Molly Roy '21 [3-4] Kevin Souhrada '19 [5-6] Sydney Furno '19 [1-4] Dylan Dorsch '19 [5-6]
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	OCS	13	18	17	18	18	103	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	1	2	3	5	3	4	18	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Harrington '18 [3-4] John Cocozza '20 [1-2, 5-6] Joseph David '20 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	DSQ	1	1	1	1	1	24	Tom Green '19 Bridget Green '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	3	5	2	2	10	3	25	Harry Ricker '19 [1-2, 5-6] Patrick Modin '19 [3-4] Danny Raphael '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	4	4	5	3	8	6	30	Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	2	3	4	7	7	8	31	Mack Totman '19 [1-2, 5-6] Sean Groskoph '20 [3-4] Evan Hybl '19 [1-2, 5-6] Malcolm Harrison '19 [3-4]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	9	13	7	4	6	2	41	Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-6] Hannah Dilavore '20 [1-2] Nicholas Buscemi '18 [3-6]
Rye High School	Garnets	5	9	11	8	2	7	42	Brett Sophie '21 Madeline Saffer '20
Toms River North	Mariners	6	6	8	6	11	9	46	Declan Botwinick '21 Devyn Walkowicz '21
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute	Marauders	7	11	12	14	5	5	54	Gunnar Grenauer '18 Mark Hofmeister '20
Toms River South	Indians	8	7	10	DNF	4	11	59	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-4] Alexa Carles '19 [5-6] Jack Parks '21 [1-4]
Three Village CSD	Patriots	11	14	6	12	12	10	65	Simon Allam '18 Natalia Newton '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles	14	8	14	11	13	13	73	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Owen Desanto '23
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	12	12	9	10	17	16	76	Andrew Madsgard '18 [1-4] Shannon Bedell '19 [5-6] Kristen Hess '19 [1-4] Emily Sheuermann '18 [5-6]
Northport HS	Northport VS	10	10	17	DNF	14	15	85	Sterling Thompson '20 Lauren Thompson '21
Harborfields	Harborfield Varsity	17	18	16	15	9	12	87	Alexandra Hafen '21 Caroline Greco '21
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	15	17	13	9	15	DNF	88	No Show No Show
Bay Shore High School	Marauders	13	15	15	13	DSQ	17	92	Rudy Caligure '18 [1-4] Joe Termini '23 [5-6] Spencer Asofsky '21 [1-4] Ryan Scully '19 [5-6]
Bellport Senior High School	Varsity	16	16	18	DNS	16	14	99	Eva Leggett '20 No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Bay Shore High School Marauders	2	2	4	4	6	6
Bellport Senior High School Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5
Central Regional High School Eagles	3	3	5	5	7	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	4	4	6	6	8	8
Harborfields Harborfield Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9
Northport HS Northport VS	6	6	8	8	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	7	7	9	9	11	11
Rye High School Garnets	8	8	10	10	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	11	11	13	13
St. John the Baptist Cougars	10	10	12	12	14	14
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders	11	11	13	13	15	15
Summit High School Hilltoppers	12	12	14	14	16	16
The Stony Brook School Bears	13	13	15	15	17	17
Three Village CSD Patriots	14	14	16	16	18	18
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	17	17	1	1
Toms River South Indians	16	16	18	18	2	2
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	1	1	3	3
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates	18	18	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Bay Shore High School Marauders	3	3	5	5	7	7
Bellport Senior High School Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6
Central Regional High School Eagles	4	4	6	6	8	8
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	5	5	7	7	9	9
Harborfields Harborfield Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10
Northport HS Northport VS	7	7	9	9	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	8	8	10	10	12	12
Rye High School Garnets	9	9	11	11	13	13
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	12	12	14	14
St. John the Baptist Cougars	11	11	13	13	15	15
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders	12	12	14	14	16	16
Summit High School Hilltoppers	13	13	15	15	17	17
The Stony Brook School Bears	14	14	16	16	18	18
Three Village CSD Patriots	15	15	17	17	1	1
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	18	18	2	2
Toms River South Indians	17	17	1	1	3	3
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	2	2	4	4
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bay Shore High School	Emma Beqaj '20 [1-2] Molly Roy '21 [3-4] Kevin Souhrada '19 [5-6]	Sydney Furno '19 [1-4] Dylan Dorsch '19 [5-6]
Marauders	Rudy Caligure '18 [1-4] Joe Termini '23 [5-6]	Spencer Asofsky '21 [1-4] Ryan Scully '19 [5-6]
Bellport Senior High School	Finn Rauch '19	Luca Sharpf '20
Varsity	Eva Leggett '20	No Show
Central Regional High School	Peter Taboada '20	Dino Nicastro '20
Eagles	Reilly Fitzgerald '18	Owen Desanto '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	Justin Modin '19
Colts	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Harrington '18 [3-4]	John Cocozza '20 [1-2, 5-6] Joseph David '20 [3-4]
Harborfields	Max Hafen '18	Caroline Greco '21
Harborfield Varsity	Alexandra Hafen '21	Caroline Greco '21
Northport HS	Michael Preston '18 [1-2, 5-6] Connor Burns '22 [3-4]	Jackson Riordan '22 [1-2, 5-6] Ana Honoria '18 [3-4]
Northport VS	Sterling Thompson '20	Lauren Thompson '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-6]	Taylor Rice '19 [1-2, 5-6] Oliva Pasquale '19 [3-4]
Bulldogs	Harry Ricker '19 [1-2, 5-6] Patrick Modin '19 [3-4]	Danny Raphael '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Rye High School	Lise Powers '20 [1-2, 5-6] Gruber Jack '21 [3-4]	Cc Millard '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Garnets	Brett Sophie '21	Madeline Saffer '20
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18 [1-6]	Tom Green '19 [1-2] Brielle Willoughby '20 [3-4] Nate Ertle '20 [5-6]
Rams	Tom Green '19	Bridget Green '21
St. John the Baptist	Clare Guarascio '18 [1-4] Emma Worthington '19 [5-6]	Kaitlyn Brzostek '19 [1-4] Margaret Scott '19 [5-6]
Cougars	Andrew Madsgard '18 [1-4] Shannon Bedell '19 [5-6]	Kristen Hess '19 [1-4] Emily Sheuermann '18 [5-6]
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute	Robert Robinson '18	Garrett Grenauer '20
Marauders	Gunnar Grenauer '18	Mark Hofmeister '20
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18	Kelsey Kennedy '18
Hilltoppers	Mack Totman '19 [1-2, 5-6] Sean Groskoph '20 [3-4]	Evan Hybl '19 [1-2, 5-6] Malcolm Harrison '19 [3-4]
The Stony Brook School	Thomas Derose '19	Ella Simmons '19
Bears	Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-6]	Hannah Dilavore '20 [1-2] Nicholas Buscemi '18 [3-6]
Three Village CSD	Alex Wiggins '18	Philip Foucher '18
Patriots	Simon Allam '18	Natalia Newton '20
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Devyn Walkowicz '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-4] Alexa Carles '19 [5-6]	Jack Parks '21 [1-4]
Trinity Hall	Julia Laforgia '19	Kailin Burns-Cohen '18
Monarchs	Lauren Ehnot '20	Alex Chrystal '20
Unregistered-MASSA	No Show	No Show
Pirates	No Show	No Show

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.7 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 28.4 kn

From N (353°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1020.3 hPa Rain0.44 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at SUNY Maritime: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at SUNY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at SUNY Maritime, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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