Rumson-Fair Haven '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.26 (fleet 2.04) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–3 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 7–3 against 5.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-09-30 | NJISA Fall Team Champs | skipper | 1.57 | 1.11 | 2–2 | 2.2 | −0.46 | 0.0 | 88% |
| 2017-10-04 | NJISA Fall TEAM 1 | skipper | 1.46 | 3.25 | 5–1 | 3.7 | +1.79 | 1.2 | 21% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Season | |||||
| OCC Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | 0.83 |
| NJISA Wed Series One | Skipper | A | 2 | 10.5 | 0.07 |
| NJISA Wed Series Two | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.0 | 0.02 |
| NJISA Sailfest 2018 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 2.00 |
| NJISA Fall Team Champs | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Fall 2017 Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime MASSA Fall Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 1.59 |
| NJISA Wed Series #1 | Skipper | B | 1 | 3.0 | 0.14 |
| NJISA Wed Fleet Series #2 | Crew | A | 2 | 2.5 | — |
| NJISA Fall TEAM 1 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| 2017 NJISA Sailfest | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 2.19 |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| NJISA 2016 Sailfest | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 2.94 |
| NJISA 2016 Fall Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.6 | 1.48 |
| MASSA Fall Fleet Gold Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.8 | 0.88 |
| 2016 SUNY Maritime Fall Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 2.47 |
| 2016 OCC Fall Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.8 | 0.82 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
