NJISA Wed Fleet Series #2

HostToms River South
Date09/20/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	17	22
2	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	12	17	29
3	Ranney School	Panthers 2	19	15	34
4	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	20	20	40
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	16	30	46
6	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	31	26	57
7	Toms River South	Indians	26	38	64
8	Toms River North	Mariners	26	40	66
9	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	33	35	68
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	52	30	82
11	Central Regional High School	Eagles	63	21	84
12	Ranney School	Panthers 1	35	58	93
13	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	48	50	98
14	Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 3	59	53	112
15	Toms River East	Raiders	57	56	113
16	Jackson Memorial	Jaguars	57	58	115
17	Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 1	64	60	124
18	Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 2	62	66	128

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	1	2	1	5	Dana Haig '18 Tom Green '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	3	2	3	4	12	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-2] Michaela O'Brien '20 [3-4] Harry Ricker '19 [1-2] Claire Haynes '19 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	6	7	1	2	16	Michael Ehnot '18 John Cocozza '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	2	8	6	3	19	Luke Arnone '19 [1-4] Blake Epstein '19 [1-2] Toby Savage '17 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	4	5	4	7	20	Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Toms River South	Indians	9	4	5	8	26	Zach Higham '19 [1-4] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-4]
Toms River North	Mariners	10	3	8	5	26	Eddie Harrison '18 Evan Harrison '21
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	5	11	9	6	31	Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	8	6	7	12	33	Vincent Priolo '19 Regina Vahey '18
Ranney School	Panthers 1	7	9	10	9	35	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4] Catherine Vucetic '19 [1-2] Hubert Wang '21 [3-4]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	11	10	12	15	48	Brendan Gilman '18 [1-4] Alexander Giordano '21 [1-2] Gwyn Blackley '19 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	12	12	17	11	52	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2] Matthew Bell '20 [3-4] Justin Modin '19 [1-2]
Jackson Memorial	Jaguars	13	17	11	16	57	Joseph Laplaca '19 Shawn Tirone '21
Toms River East	Raiders	16	15	13	13	57	Luke Dunton '18 Evan Czenis '20
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 3	DNS	14	16	10	59	No Show No Show
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 2	14	13	18	17	62	No Show No Show
Central Regional High School	Eagles	17	18	14	14	63	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [1-2] Dino Nicastro '20 [3-4] Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Owen Desanto '23 [3-4]
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 1	15	16	15	18	64	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 2	3	3	1	8	15	Cameron Giblin '19 William Beyer '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	2	1	3	11	17	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-2] Patrick Modin '19 [3-4] Taylor Rice '19 [1-2] Amelia Buch '20 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	2	5	5	17	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	4	4	3	20	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-4] Whitney Butterfield '20 [1-2] Hope Maguire '19 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	1	10	8	2	21	Peter Taboada '20 Maxwell Bonanno '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	7	6	7	6	26	Zachary York '20 Chris Medolla '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	4	DNF	6	1	30	Jack Harrington '18 [1-2] Quinn Harrington '19 [3-4] Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2] Luke Caponegro '18 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	11	13	2	4	30	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	10	5	10	10	35	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Toms River South	Indians	15	7	9	7	38	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3-4] Tabitha Paul '19 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Toms River North	Mariners	6	8	14	12	40	Declan Botwinick '21 Devyn Walkowicz '21
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	13	15	13	9	50	Molly Meehan '19 [1-4] Ryan Lee Shapiro '20 [1-2] Genieve Hand '21 [3-4]
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 3	14	9	11	DNS	53	No Show No Show
Toms River East	Raiders	12	14	16	14	56	Loring Dunton '18 Elizabeth Burns '20
Ranney School	Panthers 1	17	11	17	13	58	Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-4] Julia Wolf '19 [1-2] Tom Chen '20 [3-4]
Jackson Memorial	Jaguars	18	12	12	16	58	Michael Anama '20 No Show
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 1	8	DNF	18	15	60	No Show No Show
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 2	16	16	15	DNS	66	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	18	18	18	18
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	17	17	17	17
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	15	15	15	15
Jackson Memorial Jaguars	14	14	14	14
Ranney School Panthers 1	13	13	13	13
Ranney School Panthers 2	12	12	12	12
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	9	9
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	8	8	8	8
Toms River East Raiders	7	7	7	7
Toms River North Mariners	6	6	6	6
Toms River South Indians	5	5	5	5
Trinity Hall Monarchs	4	4	4	4
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1	3	3	3	3
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2	2	2	2	2
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 3	1	1	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	18	18	18	18
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	17	17	17	17
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	15	15	15	15
Jackson Memorial Jaguars	14	14	14	14
Ranney School Panthers 1	13	13	13	13
Ranney School Panthers 2	12	12	12	12
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	9	9
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	8	8	8	8
Toms River East Raiders	7	7	7	7
Toms River North Mariners	6	6	6	6
Toms River South Indians	5	5	5	5
Trinity Hall Monarchs	4	4	4	4
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1	3	3	3	3
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2	2	2	2	2
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 3	1	1	1	1

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [1-2] Dino Nicastro '20 [3-4]	Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Owen Desanto '23 [3-4]
Eagles	Peter Taboada '20	Maxwell Bonanno '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	John Cocozza '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2] Matthew Bell '20 [3-4]	Justin Modin '19 [1-2]
Colts 2	Jack Harrington '18 [1-2] Quinn Harrington '19 [3-4]	Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2] Luke Caponegro '18 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Vincent Priolo '19	Regina Vahey '18
Griffins	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Jackson Memorial	Joseph Laplaca '19	Shawn Tirone '21
Jaguars	Michael Anama '20	No Show
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4]	Catherine Vucetic '19 [1-2] Hubert Wang '21 [3-4]
Panthers 1	Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-4]	Julia Wolf '19 [1-2] Tom Chen '20 [3-4]
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19 [1-4]	Blake Epstein '19 [1-2] Toby Savage '17 [3-4]
Panthers 2	Cameron Giblin '19	William Beyer '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18 [1-4]	Alexander Giordano '21 [1-2] Gwyn Blackley '19 [3-4]
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19 [1-4]	Ryan Lee Shapiro '20 [1-2] Genieve Hand '21 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-2] Michaela O'Brien '20 [3-4]	Harry Ricker '19 [1-2] Claire Haynes '19 [3-4]
Bulldogs	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-2] Patrick Modin '19 [3-4]	Taylor Rice '19 [1-2] Amelia Buch '20 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18	Tom Green '19
Rams	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Patrick York '20
Hermits	Zachary York '20	Chris Medolla '20
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18	Evan Czenis '20
Raiders	Loring Dunton '18	Elizabeth Burns '20
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Devyn Walkowicz '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-4]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-4]
Indians	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3-4]	Tabitha Paul '19 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-4]	Whitney Butterfield '20 [1-2] Hope Maguire '19 [3-4]
Unregistered-MASSA	No Show	No Show
Pirates 1	No Show	No Show
Unregistered-MASSA	No Show	No Show
Pirates 2	No Show	No Show
Unregistered-MASSA	No Show	No Show
Pirates 3	No Show	No Show

Conditions — 09/20/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 71% · Pressure 1011.3 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 78°F ↓ 72°F

Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.6 kn

avg · max 16.3 kn

Gusts to 32.7 kn

From N (358°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine3.5 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1011.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 12 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Toms River South: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Toms River South by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Toms River South, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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