2017 NJISA Sailfest

HostTRYC & OCC
Date09/09/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers	20	12	32
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	34	20	54
3	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	36	28	64
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	39	30	69
5	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	44	43	87
6	Toms River North	Mariners	55	42	97
7	Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	35	62	97
8	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	41	62	103
9	Toms River South	Indians	51	64	115
10	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	63	52	115
11	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	43	73	116
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	67	59	126
13	Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	65	65	130
14	Central Regional High School	Eagles	51	86	137
15	Jackson Memorial	Jackson Memorial	91	55	146
16	Chatham High School	Cougars	82	66	148

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	1	5	1	4	1	8	20	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	15	2	3	11	1	34	Dana Haig '18 Brielle Willoughby '20
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	7	1	10	5	9	3	35	Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	12	3	4	8	4	5	36	Michaela O'Brien '20 Claire Haynes '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	5	7	6	1	7	13	39	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	10	9	3	9	6	4	41	Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Fortier '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	3	2	12	11	13	2	43	Michael Ehnot '18 John Cocozza '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	4	12	7	2	8	11	44	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-6] Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 [1-2] Alex Chrystal '20 [3-6]
Toms River South	Indians	8	6	11	7	10	9	51	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Central Regional High School	Eagles	11	13	8	10	2	7	51	Peter Taboada '20 Danielle Petry '20
Toms River North	Mariners	6	8	14	14	3	10	55	Eddie Harrison '18 Evan Harrison '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	9	10	13	13	12	6	63	Regina Vahey '18 Joseph Paccione '21
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	13	14	15	6	5	12	65	Sean Groskoph '20 Sophie Lusty '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	14	4	5	15	14	15	67	Jack Harrington '18 Joseph David '20
Chatham High School	Cougars	15	11	9	16	15	16	82	Luke Duplessis '20 [1-6] Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2, 5-6] Zoe Papier '19 [3-4]
Jackson Memorial	Jackson Memorial	16	16	DNF	12	16	14	91	Joseph Laplaca '19 Shawn Tirone '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	1	2	1	3	3	2	12	Cameron Giblin '19 Brooke Schmelz '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	1	3	5	5	4	20	Tom Green '19 [1-4] Bridget Green '21 [5-6] Bridget Green '21 [1-4] Tom Green '19 [5-6]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	8	5	2	1	9	3	28	Patrick Modin '19 [1-2] Harry Ricker '19 [3-6] Lucas Tucker '19 [1-2] Danny Raphael '19 [3-6]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	3	3	5	4	4	11	30	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Taylor Rice '19
Toms River North	Mariners	6	7	8	2	14	5	42	Declan Botwinick '21 Devyn Walkowicz '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	12	6	8	7	1	43	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-6] Isabelle Grimes '18 [1-2] Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 [3-6]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	7	9	12	15	2	7	52	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-6] Nate Ciak '20 [1-2, 5-6] Alexander Plaskon '21 [3-4]
Jackson Memorial	Jackson Memorial	DNF	10	7	10	1	10	55	Michael Anama '20 No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	5	6	15	7	12	14	59	Patrick Cashin '20 [1-4] Luke Caponegro '18 [5-6] Quinn Harrington '19 [1-2, 5-6] Matthew Bell '20 [3-4]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	11	4	14	12	8	13	62	Molly Meehan '19 [1-6] Gwyn Blackley '19 [1-2, 4-6] Genieve Hand '21 [3]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	14	14	4	6	16	8	62	Mack Totman '19 Evan Hybl '19
Toms River South	Indians	12	8	10	13	6	15	64	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alexa Carles '19 [3-4] No Show [1-4] Alexa Carles '19 [5-6]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	10	13	9	9	15	9	65	Hannah Mercurio '20 Leo Briant '19
Chatham High School	Cougars	4	11	11	11	13	16	66	Thomas Marino '21 [1-4] Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [5-6] Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-2] Ryan Mayes '19 [3-4] Zoe Papier '19 [5-6]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	13	16	13	14	11	6	73	Ryan Mullins '19 Justin Modin '19
Central Regional High School	Eagles	DNF	15	16	16	10	12	86	Dino Nicastro '20 Danielle Petry '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	3	3	5	5
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	4	4	6	6
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	7	7	9	9
Jackson Memorial Jackson Memorial	6	6	8	8	10	10
Ranney School Panthers	7	7	9	9	11	11
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	8	8	10	10	12	12
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	9	9	11	11	13	13
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	10	10	12	12	14	14
Southern Regional High School Rams	11	11	13	13	15	15
Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	12	12	14	14	16	16
Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	13	13	15	15	1	1
Toms River North Mariners	14	14	16	16	2	2
Toms River South Indians	15	15	1	1	3	3
Trinity Hall Monarchs	16	16	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Central Regional High School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6
Chatham High School Cougars	3	3	5	5	7	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	4	4	6	6	8	8
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	5	5	7	7	9	9
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	8	8	10	10
Jackson Memorial Jackson Memorial	7	7	9	9	11	11
Ranney School Panthers	8	8	10	10	12	12
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	9	9	11	11	13	13
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	10	10	12	12	14	14
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	11	11	13	13	15	15
Southern Regional High School Rams	12	12	14	14	16	16
Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	13	13	15	15	1	1
Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	14	14	16	16	2	2
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	1	1	3	3
Toms River South Indians	16	16	2	2	4	4
Trinity Hall Monarchs	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Peter Taboada '20	Danielle Petry '20
Eagles	Dino Nicastro '20	Danielle Petry '20
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20 [1-6]	Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2, 5-6] Zoe Papier '19 [3-4]
Cougars	Thomas Marino '21 [1-4] Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [5-6]	Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-2] Ryan Mayes '19 [3-4] Zoe Papier '19 [5-6]
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	John Cocozza '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Justin Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Jack Harrington '18	Joseph David '20
Colts 2	Patrick Cashin '20 [1-4] Luke Caponegro '18 [5-6]	Quinn Harrington '19 [1-2, 5-6] Matthew Bell '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Regina Vahey '18	Joseph Paccione '21
Griffins	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-6]	Nate Ciak '20 [1-2, 5-6] Alexander Plaskon '21 [3-4]
Jackson Memorial	Joseph Laplaca '19	Shawn Tirone '21
Jackson Memorial	Michael Anama '20	No Show
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers	Cameron Giblin '19	Brooke Schmelz '21
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Caroline Fortier '19
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19 [1-6]	Gwyn Blackley '19 [1-2, 4-6] Genieve Hand '21 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 1	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Taylor Rice '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michaela O'Brien '20	Claire Haynes '19
Bulldogs 2	Patrick Modin '19 [1-2] Harry Ricker '19 [3-6]	Lucas Tucker '19 [1-2] Danny Raphael '19 [3-6]
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18	Brielle Willoughby '20
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-4] Bridget Green '21 [5-6]	Bridget Green '21 [1-4] Tom Green '19 [5-6]
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18	Kelsey Kennedy '18
Hilltoppers 1	Mack Totman '19	Evan Hybl '19
Summit High School	Sean Groskoph '20	Sophie Lusty '20
Hilltoppers 2	Hannah Mercurio '20	Leo Briant '19
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Devyn Walkowicz '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alexa Carles '19 [3-4]	No Show [1-4] Alexa Carles '19 [5-6]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-6]	Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 [1-2] Alex Chrystal '20 [3-6]
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-6]	Isabelle Grimes '18 [1-2] Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 [3-6]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2017 NJISA Sailfest

Division A

Division B

From the notes