| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Southern Regional High School | Rams | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | 7–3 |
| 4 |  |
Summit High School | Hilltoppers | 3–7 |
| 5 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
St. Augustine Prep School | Hermits | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,503 team race matches sailed before 2018-09-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 31 matches (97%) with a log-loss of 0.193 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.50 ± 0.41: an orderly event, more orderly than 78% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ranney School | 8.06 | 11.06 | 10–0 | 9.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 4 | Summit High School | 2.39 | 2.98 | 3–7 | 2.5 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 2 | Southern Regional High School | 5.96 | 6.48 | 8–3 | 7.5 | +0.52 | 0.2 | 49% |
| 5 | Christian Brothers Academy | 3.01 | 2.70 | 3–7 | 3.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 3 | Rumson-Fair Haven | 5.98 | 5.51 | 7–4 | 7.5 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 6 | St. Augustine Prep School | 1.09 | -1.91 | 0–10 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Hybl | Summit High School | 0.63 | 1.21 | 3–7 | 2.5 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 48% |
| Tom Green | Southern Regional High School | 1.97 | 2.49 | 8–3 | 7.5 | +0.52 | 0.2 | 49% |
| Matthew Bell | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.75 | 0.44 | 3–7 | 3.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Colin Guerrera | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.70 | 0.39 | 3–7 | 3.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Harry Ricker | Rumson-Fair Haven | 1.57 | 1.11 | 2–2 | 2.2 | −0.46 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Calvin Mcclain | St. Augustine Prep School | 0.50 | -2.50 | 0–10 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Chase Davis | St. Augustine Prep School | 0.50 | -2.50 | 0–10 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Chris Medolla | St. Augustine Prep School | -0.21 | -3.21 | 0–10 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hilltoppers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Colts | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hilltoppers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Hilltoppers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Brooke Schmelz '21 Cameron Giblin '19 Luke Arnone '19 |
Matthew Hamelsky '19 John Cocozza '20 Will Beyer '20 Blake Epstein '19 |
|
Southern Regional High School | Rams | Bridget Green '21 Brielle Willoughby '20 Tom Green '19 |
Nate Ertle '20 Alex Klinov '22 Joe Mrazek '20 |
|
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | Colleen O'Brien '20 Harry Ricker '19 Michaela O'Brien '20 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 |
Morgan Rice '21 Danny Raphael '19 Amelia Buch '20 Taylor Rice '19 |
|
Summit High School | Hilltoppers | Evan Hybl '19 Quinn Collins '21 Sean Groskoph '20 |
Avery Anderson '21 Peter Tully '21 Jack Greengrass '22 Malcolm Harrison '19 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Colin Guerrera '22 Matthew Bell '20 Ryan Ehnot '22 |
Walter Mehl '21 Justin Modin '19 Joseph David '20 |
|
St. Augustine Prep School | Hermits | Calvin Mcclain '22 Chase Davis '20 Chris Medolla '20 |
Conner Schiela '20 Corbin Menzgentzow '22 Mason Medolla '22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
