| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | 4–1 |
| 2 |  |
Southern Regional High School | Rams | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 4–1 |
| 4 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Toms River South | Indians | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Central Regional High School | Eagles | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,788 team race matches sailed before 2017-10-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 16 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.303 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.48 ± 0.57: a typical event, more orderly than 75% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs | 3 | 5.44 | Harry Ricker / Danny Raphael Colleen O'Brien / Morgan Rice Michaela O'Brien / Claire Haynes | 62% | 5–1 (83%) | +1.3 |
| 2 | Southern Regional High School Rams | 2 | 5.99 | Tom Green / Bridget Green 1.95 Dana Haig / Joe Mrazek 1.98 Brielle Willoughby / Nate Ertle | 72% | 4–2 (67%) | −0.3 |
| 3 | Ranney School Panthers | 1 | 6.24 | Luke Arnone / Blake Epstein Cameron Giblin / William Beyer Brooke Schmelz / Matthew Hamelsky | 79% | 4–1 (80%) | +0.0 |
| 4 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | 4 | 4.11 school −0.12 | Michael Ehnot / Justin Modin 2.09 Jack Harrington / John Cocozza Ryan Mullins / Joseph David | 45% | 2–3 (40%) | −0.2 |
| 5 | Toms River South Indians | 5 | 2.86 | Alexa Carles / Chris Krause Zach Higham / Paige Zelenak 1.34 Leo Krajewski / Jack Parks | 26% | 1–4 (20%) | −0.3 |
| 6 | Central Regional High School Eagles | 6 | 1.35 school −0.11 | Reilly Fitzgerald / Zach Brooks -0.13 Peter Taboada / Maxwell Bonanno Dino Nicastro / Arianna Weber | 9% | 0–5 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rumson-Fair Haven | 5.44 | 7.23 | 5–1 | 3.7 | +1.79 | 1.2 | 21% |
| 3 | Ranney School | 6.24 | 6.31 | 4–1 | 4.0 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 4 | Christian Brothers Academy | 4.11 | 3.69 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2 | Southern Regional High School | 5.99 | 5.54 | 4–2 | 4.4 | −0.44 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 5 | Toms River South | 2.86 | 2.17 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.69 | 0.1 | 87% |
| 6 | Central Regional High School | 1.35 | -1.65 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Ricker | Rumson-Fair Haven | 1.46 | 3.25 | 5–1 | 3.7 | +1.79 | 1.2 | 21% |
| Tom Green | Southern Regional High School | 1.95 | 1.50 | 4–2 | 4.4 | −0.44 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Alexa Carles | Toms River South | 0.63 | -0.06 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.69 | 0.1 | 87% |
| Zach Higham | Toms River South | 1.34 | 0.65 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.69 | 0.1 | 87% |
| Dino Nicastro | Central Regional High School | 0.18 | -2.82 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Toms River South | Central Regional High School | 76% | |
| 1 | 2 | Southern Regional High School | Ranney School | 45% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Christian Brothers Academy | 71% | |
| 1 | 4 | Ranney School | Central Regional High School | 98% | |
| 1 | 5 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Toms River South | 88% | |
| 1 | 6 | Southern Regional High School | Christian Brothers Academy | 81% | |
| 1 | 7 | Ranney School | Rumson-Fair Haven | 66% | |
| 1 | 8 | Southern Regional High School | Central Regional High School | 97% | |
| 1 | 9 | Christian Brothers Academy | Toms River South | 72% | |
| 1 | 10 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Southern Regional High School | 40% | upset |
| 1 | 11 | Ranney School | Toms River South | 93% | |
| 1 | 12 | Christian Brothers Academy | Central Regional High School | 89% | |
| 1 | 13 | Southern Regional High School | Toms River South | 92% | |
| 1 | 14 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Central Regional High School | 96% | |
| 1 | 15 | Ranney School | Christian Brothers Academy | 85% | |
| 3 | 16 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Southern Regional High School | 40% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Indians | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Indians | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Colts | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Indians | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Colts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | Colleen O'Brien '20 Harry Ricker '19 Michaela O'Brien '20 |
Morgan Rice '21 Danny Raphael '19 Claire Haynes '19 |
|
Southern Regional High School | Rams | Brielle Willoughby '20 Dana Haig '18 Tom Green '19 |
Nate Ertle '20 Joe Mrazek '20 Bridget Green '21 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Brooke Schmelz '21 Cameron Giblin '19 Luke Arnone '19 |
Matthew Hamelsky '19 William Beyer '20 Blake Epstein '19 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Jack Harrington '18 Michael Ehnot '18 Ryan Mullins '19 |
John Cocozza '20 Justin Modin '19 Joseph David '20 |
|
Toms River South | Indians | Alexa Carles '19 Leo Krajewski '19 Zach Higham '19 |
Chris Krause '19 Jack Parks '21 Paige Zelenak '19 |
|
Central Regional High School | Eagles | Dino Nicastro '20 Peter Taboada '20 Reilly Fitzgerald '18 |
Arianna Weber '21 Maxwell Bonanno '19 Zach Brooks '21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
