2016 OCC Fall Invitational

HostTRYC - OCC
Date09/24/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers	12	22	34
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	23	21	44
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	21	37	58
4	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	45	28	73
5	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	47	32	79
6	Toms River South	Indians 2	41	38	79
7	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	37	48	85
8	Toms River South	Indians 1	68	35	103
9	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	41	67	108
10	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	42	71	113
11	Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	59	56	115
12	Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	60	66	126
13	Chatham High School	Cougars 1	84	46	130
14	Princeton High School	Little Tigers	62	96	158
15	Central Regional High School	Eagles	85	75	160
16	Toms River East	Raiders	90	88	178
17	Chatham High School	Cougars 2	101	92	193

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	3	1	1	2	1	4	12	Luke Arnone '19 Mari Patient '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	1	8	7	1	2	2	21	Joe Laforgia '17 Justin Modin '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	4	2	6	5	3	3	23	Emily Haig '17 [1-6] Tom Green '19 [1-2] Kailee Forlai '17 [3-6]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	2	6	2	7	12	8	37	Margaret Maccormack '17 Catherine Cooke '17
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	8	5	3	10	10	5	41	Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Fortier '19
Toms River South	Indians 2	11	3	4	8	6	9	41	Zach Higham '19 Tabitha Paul '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	7	13	10	6	5	1	42	Julia Laforgia '19 Kailin Burns-Cohen '18
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	5	4	5	11	7	13	45	Cole Banias '17 Camryn Kennedy '17
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	6	9	8	9	8	7	47	Harry Ricker '19 [1-6] No Show [1-4] Patrick Modin '19 [5-6]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	10	11	11	4	11	12	59	Patrick Murray '19 Sarah Parenti '17
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	13	10	14	3	9	11	60	Thomas Quinn '18 William Przedpelski '17
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	9	7	12	14	4	16	62	Ashley Dart '17 Murphey Erin '20
Toms River South	Indians 1	12	15	9	13	13	6	68	Willow Wahlers '17 Alexa Carles '19
Chatham High School	Cougars 1	14	12	15	12	16	15	84	Jillian Torrente '17 [1-6] Zoe Papier '19 [1-4] Jack Gallagher '19 [5-6]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	15	14	13	15	14	14	85	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Fifield Scott '16
Toms River East	Raiders	17	16	16	16	15	10	90	Craig Ambrosio '19 Renee Ciufia '17
Chatham High School	Cougars 2	16	17	17	17	17	17	101	Grace Evans '17 [1-6] Zachary Krieger '19 [1-2] James Mccarron '18 [3-4] Zoe Papier '19 [5-6]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	8	1	1	9	1	21	Tom Green '19 [1-6] Emily Micciche '17 [1-4] Kendal Forlai '20 [5-6]
Ranney School	Panthers	2	2	2	5	5	6	22	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-6] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2] Catherine Vucetic '19 [3-4] Blake Epstein '19 [5-6]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	4	3	6	2	11	2	28	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	8	1	9	4	3	7	32	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-6] No Show [1-4] Kate Swikart '19 [5-6]
Toms River South	Indians 1	6	5	4	6	6	8	35	Lauren Zelenak '17 Paige Zelenak '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	5	10	3	15	1	3	37	Chris Magno '17 [1-2] Michael Ehnot '18 [3-6] Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2]
Toms River South	Indians 2	3	13	7	7	4	4	38	Joey Cashman '18 Leo Krajewski '19
Chatham High School	Cougars 1	13	4	8	8	8	5	46	Marisa Marino '17 Luke Duplessis '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	7	9	13	3	2	14	48	Regina Vahey '18 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	9	15	5	9	7	11	56	Liam Dwyer '17 Leo Briant '19
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	12	7	11	13	10	13	66	Margot Murray '17 Natalie Herr '17
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	14	11	10	10	13	9	67	Molly Meehan '19 Hannah Ploskonka '16
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	10	6	14	17	12	12	71	Lauren Ehnot '20 Holly Koerwer '17
Central Regional High School	Eagles	11	12	16	11	15	10	75	Macmoyle John '17 [1-2, 5-6] Nicastro Dino '20 [3-4] Vasel Luke '20 [1-2] Werner Tim '20 [3-6]
Toms River East	Raiders	15	14	12	14	16	17	88	Luke Dunton '18 Loring Dunton '18
Chatham High School	Cougars 2	16	17	15	12	17	15	92	Jack Gallagher '19 [1-2] Paul Danenberg '19 [3-6] Paul Danenberg '19 [1-2] Zachary Krieger '19 [3-4] James Mccarron '18 [5-6]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	17	16	17	16	14	16	96	Benjamin Drezner '19 Christian Swanke '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Central Regional High School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6
Chatham High School Cougars 1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Chatham High School Cougars 2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	5	5	7	7	9	9
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	6	6	8	8	10	10
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	7	7	9	9	11	11
Princeton High School Little Tigers	8	8	10	10	12	12
Ranney School Panthers	9	9	11	11	13	13
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	10	10	12	12	14	14
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	11	11	13	13	15	15
Southern Regional High School Rams	12	12	14	14	16	16
Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	13	13	15	15	17	17
Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	14	14	16	16	18	18
Toms River East Raiders	15	15	17	17	2	2
Toms River South Indians 1	16	16	18	18	3	3
Toms River South Indians 2	17	17	2	2	4	4
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	3	3	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Central Regional High School Eagles	3	3	5	5	7	7
Chatham High School Cougars 1	4	4	6	6	8	8
Chatham High School Cougars 2	5	5	7	7	9	9
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	6	6	8	8	10	10
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	7	7	9	9	11	11
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	8	8	10	10	12	12
Princeton High School Little Tigers	9	9	11	11	13	13
Ranney School Panthers	10	10	12	12	14	14
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	11	11	13	13	15	15
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	12	12	14	14	16	16
Southern Regional High School Rams	13	13	15	15	17	17
Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	14	14	16	16	18	18
Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	15	15	17	17	2	2
Toms River East Raiders	16	16	18	18	3	3
Toms River South Indians 1	17	17	2	2	4	4
Toms River South Indians 2	18	18	3	3	5	5
Trinity Hall Monarchs	2	2	4	4	6	6

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Reilly Fitzgerald '18	Fifield Scott '16
Eagles	Macmoyle John '17 [1-2, 5-6] Nicastro Dino '20 [3-4]	Vasel Luke '20 [1-2] Werner Tim '20 [3-6]
Chatham High School	Jillian Torrente '17 [1-6]	Zoe Papier '19 [1-4] Jack Gallagher '19 [5-6]
Cougars 1	Marisa Marino '17	Luke Duplessis '20
Chatham High School	Grace Evans '17 [1-6]	Zachary Krieger '19 [1-2] James Mccarron '18 [3-4] Zoe Papier '19 [5-6]
Cougars 2	Jack Gallagher '19 [1-2] Paul Danenberg '19 [3-6]	Paul Danenberg '19 [1-2] Zachary Krieger '19 [3-4] James Mccarron '18 [5-6]
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Justin Modin '19
Colts	Chris Magno '17 [1-2] Michael Ehnot '18 [3-6]	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2]
Donovan Catholic High School	Cole Banias '17	Camryn Kennedy '17
Griffins 1	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17	Catherine Cooke '17
Griffins 2	Regina Vahey '18	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Princeton High School	Ashley Dart '17	Murphey Erin '20
Little Tigers	Benjamin Drezner '19	Christian Swanke '19
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Mari Patient '17
Panthers	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-6]	Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2] Catherine Vucetic '19 [3-4] Blake Epstein '19 [5-6]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Caroline Fortier '19
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Hannah Ploskonka '16
Rumson-Fair Haven	Harry Ricker '19 [1-6]	No Show [1-4] Patrick Modin '19 [5-6]
Bulldogs	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-6]	No Show [1-4] Kate Swikart '19 [5-6]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-6]	Tom Green '19 [1-2] Kailee Forlai '17 [3-6]
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-6]	Emily Micciche '17 [1-4] Kendal Forlai '20 [5-6]
Summit High School	Patrick Murray '19	Sarah Parenti '17
Hilltoppers 1	Liam Dwyer '17	Leo Briant '19
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18	William Przedpelski '17
Hilltoppers 2	Margot Murray '17	Natalie Herr '17
Toms River East	Craig Ambrosio '19	Renee Ciufia '17
Raiders	Luke Dunton '18	Loring Dunton '18
Toms River South	Willow Wahlers '17	Alexa Carles '19
Indians 1	Lauren Zelenak '17	Paige Zelenak '19
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Tabitha Paul '19
Indians 2	Joey Cashman '18	Leo Krajewski '19
Trinity Hall	Julia Laforgia '19	Kailin Burns-Cohen '18
Monarchs	Lauren Ehnot '20	Holly Koerwer '17

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2016 OCC Fall Invitational

Division A

Division B

From the notes