Rye High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.82 (fleet 1.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–1 (94%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 8–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 17–1 against 15.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.10 | 2.47 | 9–1 | 8.0 | +1.37 | 0.7 | 33% |
| 2018-10-13 | NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | skipper | 1.03 | 4.03 | 8–0 | 7.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 42% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE FLEET LEAGUE CHAMPS | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 1.10 |
| NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime MASSA Fall Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 1.06 |
| NYISA-SE Fall Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 1.38 |
| 2017 MASSA Fall Fleet Gold Championships | Crew | B | 6 | 10.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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