2017 MASSA Fall Fleet Gold Championships

HostRochester Yacht Club
Date10/21/2017
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses	19	29	48
2	Severn School	Admirals	35	30	65
3	Ranney School	Panthers	43	30	73
4	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	25	50	75
5	Rye High School	Garnets	26	60	86
6	Annapolis High School	Panthers	43	43	86
7	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	72	16	88
8	Southern Regional High School	Rams	62	31	93
9	Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	40	56	96
10	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	66	31	97
11	Broadneck High School	Bruins	51	78	129
12	Key School	Zags	79	54	133
13	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	67	69	136
14	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	62	84	146
15	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	68	92	160
16	Nichols School	Vikings	91	85	176
17	The Stony Brook School	Bears	91	87	178
18	Oyster Bay High School	Baymen	86	101	187

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses	1	2	2	6	7	1	19	Boyd Bragg '19 Sally Johnson '18
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	6	5	6	4	2	2	25	Jake Vickers '18 Noelle Owen '19
Rye High School	Garnets	3	7	1	3	8	4	26	Michelle Lahrkamp '19 [1-6] Madeline Saffer '20 [1-2, 5-6] Fung Audrey '20 [3-4]
Severn School	Admirals	2	1	17	5	1	9	35	Madeline Hawkins '20 [1-4] Mariner Fagan '20 [5-6] Blair Reilly '18 [1-4] Camille White '18 [5-6]
Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	7	6	3	7	3	14	40	Cameron Turner '19 Patrick Kelly '20
Ranney School	Panthers	12	13	5	2	6	5	43	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Annapolis High School	Panthers	16	3	12	1	5	6	43	Porter Kavle '18 Ava Walker '20
Broadneck High School	Bruins	13	10	7	9	4	8	51	Katherine Bennett '18 Maggie Mckay '18
Southern Regional High School	Rams	4	16	18	10	11	3	62	Dana Haig '18 Brielle Willoughby '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	10	12	8	16	9	7	62	Ellie Maus '18 [1-4] Sarah Smith '18 [5-6] Matt Wright '19 [1-4] Chris Robertson '19 [5-6]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	9	14	4	14	10	15	66	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-3] Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [4-6] Morgan Rice '21 [1-2] Danny Raphael '19 [3] Taylor Rice '19 [4-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	8	15	11	8	15	10	67	Harrison Parker '18 Maddy Reynolds '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	15	4	14	11	12	12	68	Michael Ehnot '18 [1-6] John Cocozza '20 [1-4] Justin Modin '19 [5-6]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	11	9	13	12	16	11	72	James Golden '20 [1-4] Michael Bisson '18 [5-6] Amelia Johnson '21 [1-4] Henry Andress '18 [5-6]
Key School	Zags	18	11	10	13	14	13	79	Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 [1-6] Luke Koerschner '20 [1-2, 4-6] Alexander Abbott '18 [3]
Oyster Bay High School	Baymen	17	8	9	18	17	17	86	Richie Kertatos '18 Evan Furman '21
The Stony Brook School	Bears	5	18	15	17	18	18	91	Thomas Derose '19 [1-4] Alyssa Jette '19 [5-6] Ella Simmons '19 [1-4]
Nichols School	Vikings	14	17	16	15	13	16	91	Harris Padegs '18 Sam Thompson '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	4	1	5	2	3	1	16	Trevor Davis '20 Allison Forsyth '18
Christchurch School	Seahorses	2	2	3	6	14	2	29	Benton Amthor '19 [1-6] Galt Oliver '18 [1-2] Eric Demaro '18 [3-6]
Ranney School	Panthers	1	12	6	1	4	6	30	Cameron Giblin '19 William Beyer '20
Severn School	Admirals	6	3	2	5	2	12	30	Caroline Bayless '19 Abby Tindall '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	3	5	4	9	6	4	31	Michaela O'Brien '20 Claire Haynes '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	9	4	7	3	5	3	31	Tom Green '19 Bridget Green '21
Annapolis High School	Panthers	11	8	10	8	1	5	43	Nicholas Salvesen '18 Kimberly Leonard '18
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	5	6	8	12	12	7	50	Jack Irvin '17 Caroline Kelly '19
Key School	Zags	15	9	1	10	9	10	54	Harrison Reisinger '18 [1-4] Will Cornell '21 [5-6] Max Shapiro '20 [1-4]
Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	12	10	12	7	7	8	56	William Turner '20 [1-6] John Kelly '18 [1-2] Aj Smith '18 [3-6]
Rye High School	Garnets	7	7	9	13	15	9	60	Lise Powers '20 [1-4] Brett Sophie '21 [5-6] Brett Sophie '21 [1-4] Gruber Jack '21 [5-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	13	17	14	4	10	11	69	Kyle Pfrang '22 Hunter Sznoluch '19
Broadneck High School	Bruins	8	14	16	18	8	14	78	Emma Snead '19 [1-2, 5-6] Sander Miller '18 [3-4] Nicole Ryan '18 [1-2] Sean Jahnige '18 [3-4] Lucien Parker '20 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	10	15	11	14	17	17	84	Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Nichols School	Vikings	14	16	15	11	16	13	85	Meredith Ryan '18 Samantha Jensen '20
The Stony Brook School	Bears	16	11	17	16	11	16	87	Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-6] Hannah Dilavore '20 [1-2, 5-6] Margaret Hunt '19 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	18	13	13	15	18	15	92	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2] Jack Harrington '18 [3-6] Joseph David '20 [1-2]
Oyster Bay High School	Baymen	17	18	18	17	13	18	101	Rebecca Keller '21 Gregory Jones '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Annapolis High School Panthers	1	1	3	3	5	5
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6	6
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5	7	7
Christchurch School Seahorses	4	4	6	6	8	8
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	5	5	7	7	9	9
Key School Zags	6	6	8	8	10	10
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	7	7	9	9	11	11
Nichols School Vikings	8	8	10	10	12	12
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	9	9	11	11	13	13
Oyster Bay High School Baymen	10	10	12	12	14	14
Ranney School Panthers	11	11	13	13	15	15
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	12	12	14	14	16	16
Rye High School Garnets	13	13	15	15	17	17
Severn School Admirals	14	14	16	16	18	18
Southern Regional High School Rams	15	15	17	17	1	1
Southwestern Central High School Trojans	16	16	18	18	2	2
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	17	17	1	1	3	3
The Stony Brook School Bears	18	18	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Annapolis High School Panthers	2	2	4	4	6	6
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	3	3	5	5	7	7
Broadneck High School Bruins	4	4	6	6	8	8
Christchurch School Seahorses	5	5	7	7	9	9
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	6	6	8	8	10	10
Key School Zags	7	7	9	9	11	11
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	8	8	10	10	12	12
Nichols School Vikings	9	9	11	11	13	13
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	10	10	12	12	14	14
Oyster Bay High School Baymen	11	11	13	13	15	15
Ranney School Panthers	12	12	14	14	16	16
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	13	13	15	15	17	17
Rye High School Garnets	14	14	16	16	18	18
Severn School Admirals	15	15	17	17	1	1
Southern Regional High School Rams	16	16	18	18	2	2
Southwestern Central High School Trojans	17	17	1	1	3	3
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	18	18	2	2	4	4
The Stony Brook School Bears	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Annapolis High School	Porter Kavle '18	Ava Walker '20
Panthers	Nicholas Salvesen '18	Kimberly Leonard '18
Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	Noelle Owen '19
Cavaliers	Jack Irvin '17	Caroline Kelly '19
Broadneck High School	Katherine Bennett '18	Maggie Mckay '18
Bruins	Emma Snead '19 [1-2, 5-6] Sander Miller '18 [3-4]	Nicole Ryan '18 [1-2] Sean Jahnige '18 [3-4] Lucien Parker '20 [5-6]
Christchurch School	Boyd Bragg '19	Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses	Benton Amthor '19 [1-6]	Galt Oliver '18 [1-2] Eric Demaro '18 [3-6]
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18 [1-6]	John Cocozza '20 [1-4] Justin Modin '19 [5-6]
Colts	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2] Jack Harrington '18 [3-6]	Joseph David '20 [1-2]
Key School	Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 [1-6]	Luke Koerschner '20 [1-2, 4-6] Alexander Abbott '18 [3]
Zags	Harrison Reisinger '18 [1-4] Will Cornell '21 [5-6]	Max Shapiro '20 [1-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Harrison Parker '18	Maddy Reynolds '21
Saints	Kyle Pfrang '22	Hunter Sznoluch '19
Nichols School	Harris Padegs '18	Sam Thompson '20
Vikings	Meredith Ryan '18	Samantha Jensen '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Ellie Maus '18 [1-4] Sarah Smith '18 [5-6]	Matt Wright '19 [1-4] Chris Robertson '19 [5-6]
Oaks	Parker Purrington '19	Ray Domena '19
Oyster Bay High School	Richie Kertatos '18	Evan Furman '21
Baymen	Rebecca Keller '21	Gregory Jones '21
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers	Cameron Giblin '19	William Beyer '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-3] Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [4-6]	Morgan Rice '21 [1-2] Danny Raphael '19 [3] Taylor Rice '19 [4-6]
Bulldogs	Michaela O'Brien '20	Claire Haynes '19
Rye High School	Michelle Lahrkamp '19 [1-6]	Madeline Saffer '20 [1-2, 5-6] Fung Audrey '20 [3-4]
Garnets	Lise Powers '20 [1-4] Brett Sophie '21 [5-6]	Brett Sophie '21 [1-4] Gruber Jack '21 [5-6]
Severn School	Madeline Hawkins '20 [1-4] Mariner Fagan '20 [5-6]	Blair Reilly '18 [1-4] Camille White '18 [5-6]
Admirals	Caroline Bayless '19	Abby Tindall '19
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18	Brielle Willoughby '20
Rams	Tom Green '19	Bridget Green '21
Southwestern Central High School	Cameron Turner '19	Patrick Kelly '20
Trojans	William Turner '20 [1-6]	John Kelly '18 [1-2] Aj Smith '18 [3-6]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	James Golden '20 [1-4] Michael Bisson '18 [5-6]	Amelia Johnson '21 [1-4] Henry Andress '18 [5-6]
Saints	Trevor Davis '20	Allison Forsyth '18
The Stony Brook School	Thomas Derose '19 [1-4] Alyssa Jette '19 [5-6]	Ella Simmons '19 [1-4]
Bears	Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-6]	Hannah Dilavore '20 [1-2, 5-6] Margaret Hunt '19 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/21/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1024.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 73°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.6 kn

avg · max 7.2 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From SSW (204°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1024.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Rochester Yacht Club: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rochester Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Rochester Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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