Key School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.94 (fleet 1.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–45 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 4–5 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 15–22 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 2 | 8–9 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 7–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (75 matches) the record is 32–43 against 35.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MDISA Team Race League Championship | skipper | 1.59 | 0.26 | 3–4 | 4.3 | −1.33 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2017-05-27 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.66 | 0.94 | 5–8 | 6.7 | −0.71 | 0.7 | 89% |
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.54 | 1.95 | 6–8 | 5.1 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2017-04-01 | MDISA Maryland State Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.60 | 1.58 | 4–6 | 4.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.51 | 1.37 | 6–6 | 6.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2016-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.49 | 0.69 | 2–3 | 2.7 | −0.80 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2016-05-28 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.33 | 0.98 | 6–8 | 6.8 | −0.35 | 0.2 | 78% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Harrison Reisinger |  University of Tennessee |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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