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BCSC High School Varsity #1 Spring 2018

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 14 19 33
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 16 22 38
3 Key School Key School Zags 27 38 65
4 Yorktown Yorktown Patriots 35 56 91
5 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 33 67 100
6 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 73 34 107
7 Pirates Pirates Pirates 50 66 116
8 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 39 78 117
9 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 80 44 124
10 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 102 31 133
11 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 91 58 149
12 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 76 86 162
13 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 83 79 162
14 Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 88 75 163
15 Gunston Gunston Herons 70 100 170
16 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 96 102 198
17 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 98 116 214
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 1 2 1 3 3 1 3 14 Leo Boucher '18
Bryce Ricewoolf '20
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 1 4 1 1 3 4 16 Sam Bruce '20
Marcus Adam '19
Key School Key School Zags 3 8 3 2 4 2 5 27 Will Cornell '21
Nicholas Papadopoulos '18
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 7 3 6 7 2 6 2 33 Peter Lobaugh '20
Hannah Leggett '20
Yorktown Yorktown Patriots 6 7 2 4 7 8 1 35 Colman Schofield '21
Matthew Boothby '21
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 10 4 5 5 5 4 6 39 Stanley Galloway '18
Grace O'Brien '20
Pirates Pirates Pirates 4 6 11 9 8 5 7 50
Gunston Gunston Herons 8 13 8 8 11 11 11 70 Mark Bourdin '20 [1-7]
Marisa Pisapia '20 [1-4]
Grafton Howard '19 [5-7]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 16 16 7 6 6 9 13 73 Nick Budington '21
Liam Gronda '21
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 9 5 14 14 10 14 10 76 Jackson Barlow '20
Ethan Schwartz '20
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 5 9 13 13 13 10 17 80 Lucy Paskoff '20
Lochlann Ludwig '21
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 15 12 12 11 9 15 9 83 Brandon Westerfield '18 [1-7]
Ally Shearon '18 [1-2]
Caroline James '20 [3-7]
Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 11 11 15 15 12 12 12 88 William Dryer '20 [1-4]
Blake Vogel '21 [5-7]
Conner Sciullo '21 [1-7]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 17 10 17 17 15 7 8 91 James Corckran '19 [1-7]
Will Morrissey '19 [1-4]
Jack Woolls '18 [5-7]
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 13 15 9 10 17 16 16 96 Reese Meyers '22
Michael Buscemi '19
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 14 14 10 12 16 17 15 98 Jennifer Tennant '19
Catherine Nguyen '19
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 12 17 16 16 14 13 14 102 Emily Williams '20
Bianca Melton '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 4 2 1 1 1 5 5 19 Tyler Mowry '18 [1-7]
Rachel O'Neil '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Laurel Bollinger '20 [3-4]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 5 3 3 6 2 1 2 22 Owen Hennessey '21
Addi Harris '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 1 8 3 5 7 6 31 Daniel Unangst '20
Audrey Commerford '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 12 5 4 4 3 3 3 34 Matt Budington '21
C. Augie Spendley '19
Key School Key School Zags 3 12 7 5 6 4 1 38 Harrison Reisinger '18
Griffin Dugan '21
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 4 11 7 4 8 8 44 Olivia Sowa '20
Braedon Myers '20
Yorktown Yorktown Patriots 13 6 2 2 10 12 11 56 Megan Gimple '18
William Bernhardt '21
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 7 8 5 12 7 6 13 58 Richard Burke '18
Liam Gallagher '20
Pirates Pirates Pirates 6 7 14 17 13 2 7 66
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 9 10 13 9 8 9 9 67 Friso Grolleman '20
Will Leggett '18
Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 8 11 6 11 14 13 12 75 Olivia Yazigi '20
Helena Ware '18
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 14 13 16 10 11 10 4 78 Selah Tatem '18
Carson Kraycik '19
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 10 14 10 8 12 15 10 79 Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-7]
Grady Turner '19 [1-2]
Sarah Rosa '20 [3-7]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 11 17 9 15 9 11 14 86 Henry Haddon '20
Sophia Kotschoubey '20
Gunston Gunston Herons 16 15 12 13 15 14 15 100 Cotter Buckley '20 [1-4]
Sam Johnson '18 [5-7]
Becky Defino '19 [1-2]
Maccallum Borghardt '20 [3-7]
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 15 9 15 14 16 17 16 102 Ethan Rushlow '20 [1-4]
Marina Dryer '21 [5-7]
Marina Dryer '21 [1-4]
Ethan Rushlow '20 [5-7]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 17 16 17 16 17 16 17 116 Colin Thomas '19
Timothy Dixon '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron1133557
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights2244668
Boys LatinBoys Latin Lakers3355779
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets44668810
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles6688101012
Key SchoolKey School Zags7799111113
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders881010121214
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres991111131315
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals10101212141416
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons11111313151517
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1212141416161
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1313151517172
GunstonGunston Herons55779911
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals14141616113
PiratesPirates Pirates15151717224
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity161611335
YorktownYorktown Patriots171722446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron2244668
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights3355779
Boys LatinBoys Latin Lakers44668810
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets55779911
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles7799111113
Key SchoolKey School Zags881010121214
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders991111131315
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres10101212141416
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals11111313151517
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1212141416161
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1313151517172
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights14141616113
GunstonGunston Herons6688101012
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals15151717224
PiratesPirates Pirates161611335
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity171722446
YorktownYorktown Patriots1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Nick Budington '21 Liam Gronda '21
Battlin' Baron Matt Budington '21 C. Augie Spendley '19
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Peter Lobaugh '20 Hannah Leggett '20
Knights Friso Grolleman '20 Will Leggett '18
Boys Latin Boys Latin William Dryer '20 [1-4]
Blake Vogel '21 [5-7]		 Conner Sciullo '21 [1-7]
Lakers Olivia Yazigi '20 Helena Ware '18
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Lucy Paskoff '20 Lochlann Ludwig '21
Hornets Olivia Sowa '20 Braedon Myers '20
Gunston Gunston Mark Bourdin '20 [1-7] Marisa Pisapia '20 [1-4]
Grafton Howard '19 [5-7]
Herons Cotter Buckley '20 [1-4]
Sam Johnson '18 [5-7]		 Becky Defino '19 [1-2]
Maccallum Borghardt '20 [3-7]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School James Corckran '19 [1-7] Will Morrissey '19 [1-4]
Jack Woolls '18 [5-7]
Eagles Richard Burke '18 Liam Gallagher '20
Key School Key School Will Cornell '21 Nicholas Papadopoulos '18
Zags Harrison Reisinger '18 Griffin Dugan '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Emily Williams '20 Bianca Melton '19
Raiders Daniel Unangst '20 Audrey Commerford '21
Severn School Severn School Sam Bruce '20 Marcus Adam '19
Admirals Owen Hennessey '21 Addi Harris '20
Severna Park Severna Park Stanley Galloway '18 Grace O'Brien '20
Falcons Selah Tatem '18 Carson Kraycik '19
South River High School South River High School Leo Boucher '18 Bryce Ricewoolf '20
Seahawks Tyler Mowry '18 [1-7] Rachel O'Neil '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Laurel Bollinger '20 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Jennifer Tennant '19 Catherine Nguyen '19
Knights Colin Thomas '19 Timothy Dixon '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Brandon Westerfield '18 [1-7] Ally Shearon '18 [1-2]
Caroline James '20 [3-7]
Sabres Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-7] Grady Turner '19 [1-2]
Sarah Rosa '20 [3-7]
Towson High School Towson High School Reese Meyers '22 Michael Buscemi '19
Generals Ethan Rushlow '20 [1-4]
Marina Dryer '21 [5-7]		 Marina Dryer '21 [1-4]
Ethan Rushlow '20 [5-7]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Jackson Barlow '20 Ethan Schwartz '20
Varsity Henry Haddon '20 Sophia Kotschoubey '20
Yorktown Yorktown Colman Schofield '21 Matthew Boothby '21
Patriots Megan Gimple '18 William Bernhardt '21

Conditions — 04/28/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1008.6 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From SSE (166°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1008.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Boys Latin/Towson: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boys Latin/Towson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Boys Latin/Towson, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →