MASSA Spring Silver Champs

HostWashington College
Date04/08/2017
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Severn School	Admirals	55	21	76
2	Edmund Burke School	Bengals	56	45	101
3	Key School	Zags	47	56	103
4	Severna Park	Falcons	71	60	131
5	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	75	62	137
6	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	80	113	193
7	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	78	123	201
8	Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	105	100	205
9	Indian Creek School	Eagles	108	108	216
10	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	135	98	233
11	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	97	138 MRP	235 MRP
12	The Stony Brook School	Bears	121	131	252
13	Fairport High School	Red Raiders	167 LOP	160 LOP	327 LOP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Key School	Zags	2	2	7	1	7	3	1	1	1	5	6	5	6	47	Harrison Koller '17 [1-13] Isadora Gallanar '17 [1-4, 11-13] Max Shapiro '20 [5-10]
Severn School	Admirals	10	1	6	5	8	4	6	2	5	1	2	1	4	55	Sam Bruce '20 [1-13] Marcus Adam '19 [1-10] Ryan Wahba '20 [11-13]
Edmund Burke School	Bengals	4	10	11	2	3	1	3	3	4	4	4	6	1	56	Casey Cabot '17 [1-13] Talia Frank '17 [1-8] Marley Hillman '17 [9-10] Genevieve Dickinson '17 [11-13]
Severna Park	Falcons	7	8	1	3	5	6	5	7	2	7	1	8	11	71	Ian Mathiesen '18 Katherine Crawford '18
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	11	6	4	4	2	2	4	4	10	8	8	7	5	75	Cole Banias '17 [1-10] Taylor Warwick '20 [11-13] Regina Vahey '18 [1-10] Nate Ciak '20 [11-13]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	5	5	10	7	4	10	8	5	6	3	10	2	3	78	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Claire Haynes '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	4	8	8	6	8	11	9	3	6	3	3	2	80	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-13] Isabelle Grimes '18 [1-4] Claire Darman '19 [5-13]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	3	3	5	11	12	5	2	6	8	10	12	11	9	97	Brendan Gilman '18 Shayn Lynch '18
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	13	9	3	9	1	7	7	8	11	2	11	12	12	105	Noah Kullman '17 [1-13] Abby Bridges '20 [1-2] Laura Dennison '17 [3-13]
Indian Creek School	Eagles	6	7	2	6	10	11	9	11	7	DNF	5	10	10	108	Daniel Reilly '17 [1-13] Liam Lonergan '19 [1-4] Haber Carlson '17 [5-13]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	1	13	9	10	9	9	10	10	9	9	9	9	DNS	121	Thomas Derose '19 [1-13] Isaac Voros '17 [1-10] Alyssa Jette '19 [11-13]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	8	11	13	12	11	13	12	12	13	12	7	4	7	135	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-13] William Przedpelski '17 [1-8] Liz Colao '19 [9-13]
Fairport High School	Red Raiders	12	12	12	13	13	12	13	13	12	11	13	13	8	167 LOP	Diana Spencer '18 [1-7] Gregory Paiement '19 [8-13] Lilly Casamento '19 [1-7] Stephen Fritz '20 [8-13]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	2	1	4	1	1	3	21	Mariner Fagan '20 Sophie Taczak '17
Edmund Burke School	Bengals	3	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	2	5	7	4	2	45	Tye Rubin '17 River Carson '17
Key School	Zags	7	10	2	2	1	1	2	1	4	1	9	12	4	56	Harrison Reisinger '18 [1-2, 11-13] Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 [3-10] Courtney Boucher '17 [1-2] Luke Koerschner '20 [3-10] Max Shapiro '20 [11-13]
Severna Park	Falcons	5	4	4	5	4	DNF	3	3	6	6	2	3	1	60	Kate Riley '18 [1-6, 11-13] Stanley Galloway '18 [7-10] Kc Galloway '20 [1-6, 11-13]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	4	5	8	4	6	4	6	6	3	2	5	2	7	62	Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	BKD	6	7	8	7	5	8	5	5	11	11	9	8	98	Hannah Mercurio '20 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	8	3	6	11	8	8	12	8	10	9	4	7	6	100	Brandon Westerfield '18 [1-10] Coleman Walker '17 [11-13] Billy Rust '20 [1-4] Abby Bridges '20 [5-10] Emma Kelley '18 [11-13]
Indian Creek School	Eagles	11	11	13	10	12	6	5	9	9	3	3	5	11	108	Cameron Smith '17 Seamus Drury '17
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	2	DSQ	5	9	5	11	9	7	DNS	DNS	8	6	9	113	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-13] Alex Chrystal '20 [1-4] Isabelle Grimes '18 [5-13]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	9	12	11	12	11	7	7	11	8	10	10	10	5	123	Susan Munger '19 [1-4, 7-10] Patrick Modin '19 [5-6, 11-13] Joey Cooner '19 [1-4, 7-10]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	6	7	9	7	10	10	11	10	11	8	DNS	DNS	DNS	131	William Meitz '19 [1-13] Josie Levy '18 [1-2, 7-13] Jack Adams '18 [3-6]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	12	9	10	6	9	9	10	13	7	7	6	8	12	138 MRP	Allie Deluca '17 Matthew Mc Connell '18
Fairport High School	Red Raiders	10	8	12	13	13	12	13	12	12	12	12	11	10	160 LOP	Sydney Buckman '18 [1-13] Stephen Fritz '20 [1-7] Lilly Casamento '19 [8-13]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Edmund Burke School Bengals	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1
Fairport High School Red Raiders	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2
Indian Creek School Eagles	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3
Key School Zags	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Severn School Admirals	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Severna Park Falcons	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Summit High School Hilltoppers	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
The Stony Brook School Bears	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Trinity Hall Monarchs	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1
Edmund Burke School Bengals	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2
Fairport High School Red Raiders	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3
Indian Creek School Eagles	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4
Key School Zags	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Severn School Admirals	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Severna Park Falcons	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Summit High School Hilltoppers	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
The Stony Brook School Bears	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Trinity Hall Monarchs	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Donovan Catholic High School	Cole Banias '17 [1-10] Taylor Warwick '20 [11-13]	Regina Vahey '18 [1-10] Nate Ciak '20 [11-13]
Griffins	Erin Mcgarry '17	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Edmund Burke School	Casey Cabot '17 [1-13]	Talia Frank '17 [1-8] Marley Hillman '17 [9-10] Genevieve Dickinson '17 [11-13]
Bengals	Tye Rubin '17	River Carson '17
Fairport High School	Diana Spencer '18 [1-7] Gregory Paiement '19 [8-13]	Lilly Casamento '19 [1-7] Stephen Fritz '20 [8-13]
Red Raiders	Sydney Buckman '18 [1-13]	Stephen Fritz '20 [1-7] Lilly Casamento '19 [8-13]
Indian Creek School	Daniel Reilly '17 [1-13]	Liam Lonergan '19 [1-4] Haber Carlson '17 [5-13]
Eagles	Cameron Smith '17	Seamus Drury '17
Key School	Harrison Koller '17 [1-13]	Isadora Gallanar '17 [1-4, 11-13] Max Shapiro '20 [5-10]
Zags	Harrison Reisinger '18 [1-2, 11-13] Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 [3-10]	Courtney Boucher '17 [1-2] Luke Koerschner '20 [3-10] Max Shapiro '20 [11-13]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Shayn Lynch '18
Caseys	Allie Deluca '17	Matthew Mc Connell '18
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Claire Haynes '19
Bulldogs	Susan Munger '19 [1-4, 7-10] Patrick Modin '19 [5-6, 11-13]	Joey Cooner '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Severn School	Sam Bruce '20 [1-13]	Marcus Adam '19 [1-10] Ryan Wahba '20 [11-13]
Admirals	Mariner Fagan '20	Sophie Taczak '17
Severna Park	Ian Mathiesen '18	Katherine Crawford '18
Falcons	Kate Riley '18 [1-6, 11-13] Stanley Galloway '18 [7-10]	Kc Galloway '20 [1-6, 11-13]
Sts. Peter & Paul	Noah Kullman '17 [1-13]	Abby Bridges '20 [1-2] Laura Dennison '17 [3-13]
Sabres	Brandon Westerfield '18 [1-10] Coleman Walker '17 [11-13]	Billy Rust '20 [1-4] Abby Bridges '20 [5-10] Emma Kelley '18 [11-13]
Summit High School	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-13]	William Przedpelski '17 [1-8] Liz Colao '19 [9-13]
Hilltoppers	Hannah Mercurio '20	Kelsey Kennedy '18
The Stony Brook School	Thomas Derose '19 [1-13]	Isaac Voros '17 [1-10] Alyssa Jette '19 [11-13]
Bears	William Meitz '19 [1-13]	Josie Levy '18 [1-2, 7-13] Jack Adams '18 [3-6]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-13]	Isabelle Grimes '18 [1-4] Claire Darman '19 [5-13]
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-13]	Alex Chrystal '20 [1-4] Isabelle Grimes '18 [5-13]

Conditions — 04/08/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 37% · Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.8 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 25.5 kn

From W (281°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity37% Pressure1014.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · SW 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Washington College: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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