| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
South River High School | Seahawks | 9–2 |
| 2 |  |
Key School | Zags | 8–3 |
| 3 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 8–3 |
| 4 |  |
Edmund Burke School | Bengals | 6–5 |
| 5 |  |
St. Mary's Ryken | Knights | 4–7 |
| 6 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 1–10 |
| 7 |  |
St. Albans School | St. Albans | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,619 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 2 matches (50%) with a log-loss of 0.897 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Key School Zags | 1 | 3.88 | Harrison Koller / Luke Koerschner 2.38 Harrison Reisinger / Nicholas Papadopoulos Max Shapiro / Alex Alex | 78% | 1–1 (50%) | −0.6 |
| 3 | Broadneck High School Bruins | 2 | 2.26 school +0.53 | Robby Schnabel / Allison Gingrich Zach Mazer / Katherine Bennett Lucas Tucker | 22% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Broadneck High School | 2.26 | 3.88 | 1–1 | 0.4 | +1.62 | 0.5 | 39% |
| 2 | Key School | 3.88 | 2.26 | 1–1 | 1.6 | −1.62 | 0.5 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Broadneck High School | Key School | 22% | upset |
| 2 | 32 | Key School | Broadneck High School | 77% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Zags | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bruins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. Albans | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bengals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. Albans | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bengals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. Albans | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Bengals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. Albans | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bengals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. Albans | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Zags | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Knights | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. Albans | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Zags | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Knights | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Bruins | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 1-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Bengals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Bengals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Knights | 1-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
South River High School | Seahawks | Ethan Schrand '19 Jared Goldstein '18 |
Matt Bolander '18 Brenna Jones '19 |
|
Key School | Zags | Harrison Koller '17 Harrison Reisinger '18 Max Shapiro '20 |
Luke Koerschner '20 Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 Alex Alex '20 |
|
Broadneck High School | Bruins | Lucas Tucker '17 Robby Schnabel '17 Zach Mazer '17 |
Allison Gingrich '17 Katherine Bennett '18 |
|
St. Mary's Ryken | Knights | Ashley Richardson '16 Isabella Funya '16 Natalie Jones '16 |
Sixiao "Sisi" Chen '16 Shujing "Jennie" Zhang '17 Sara Ramotnik '16 Colin Thomas '19 |
|
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | Jake Vickers '18 Will Comerford '17 |
Caroline Kelly '19 Leah Sweeney '19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
