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SCC Fleet Race - Varsity

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Key School Key School Zags 31 22 53
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 34 30 64
3 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 37 28 65
4 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 48 41 89
5 Bengals Bengals Bengals 38 54 92
6 Great Mills Great Mills Hornets 47 51 98
7 Battlin' Baron Battlin' Baron Battlin' Baron 56 80 136
8 Leonardtown High Leonardtown High Raiders 78 69 147
9 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 85 75 160
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Key School Key School Zags 4 6 2 1 5 3 2 1 4 3 31 Harrison Koller '17 [1-4]
Harrison Reisinger '18 [5-10]
Max Shapiro '20 [1-4]
Harrison Koller '17 [5-10]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 3 7 5 3 4 4 4 1 2 34 Jordan Bruce '20
Sophie Taczak '17
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 2 2 4 2 7 1 6 2 5 6 37 Remington King '17
Shalom Fadullon '18
Bengals Bengals Bengals DSQ 1 1 6 1 2 3 3 DSQ 1 38
Great Mills Great Mills Hornets DSQ 5 3 3 4 7 1 5 2 7 47 Curtis Aaron '17
Olivia Sowa '20
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 5 4 5 7 2 5 5 7 3 5 48 Kate Riley '18
Kc Galloway '20
Battlin' Baron Battlin' Baron Battlin' Baron 3 8 6 4 6 6 7 6 6 4 56
Leonardtown High Leonardtown High Raiders 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 9 78 Julianna Bennett '17
Emily Williams '20
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 7 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 85 Jennifer Tennant '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Catherine Krissoff '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Catherine Nguyen '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Andrew Torreyson '19 [3-4, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Key School Key School Zags 2 1 2 4 4 1 2 1 2 3 22 Nicholas Papadopoulos '18
Alexander Abbott '18
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 7 2 1 2 6 3 3 2 1 1 28 George Kaye '18
Ava Walker '19
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 3 3 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 30 Will Mccollum '19
Addi Harris '20
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 3 4 5 3 1 5 7 3 8 2 41 Stanley Galloway '18
Colleen Walker '17
Great Mills Great Mills Hornets 4 8 4 5 3 6 5 6 5 5 51 Astri Carlsen '17
Lucy Paskoff '20
Bengals Bengals Bengals 6 5 6 6 5 2 1 5 9 9 54
Leonardtown High Leonardtown High Raiders 5 6 7 7 7 9 6 8 7 7 69 Rylee Young '17
Ryan Lacey '18
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 8 75 Nicole Hedspeth '17 [1-2]
Colin Thomas '19 [3-10]
James Mayonado '19 [1-2]
Christopher Callaghan '20 [3-10]
Battlin' Baron Battlin' Baron Battlin' Baron 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 3 6 80
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers1133557799
Battlin' BaronBattlin' Baron Battlin' Baron224466881010
BengalsBengals Bengals121211335577
Great MillsGreat Mills Hornets44668810101212
Key SchoolKey School Zags66881010121211
Leonardtown HighLeonardtown High Raiders77991111131322
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals99111113132244
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons10101212113355
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights11111313224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers224466881010
Battlin' BaronBattlin' Baron Battlin' Baron335577991111
BengalsBengals Bengals131322446688
Great MillsGreat Mills Hornets55779911111313
Key SchoolKey School Zags77991111131322
Leonardtown HighLeonardtown High Raiders88101012121133
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals10101212113355
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons11111313224466
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights121211335577

Conditions — 04/15/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1025.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From SE (141°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine7.9 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1025.0 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Great Mills/Leonardtown High: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Great Mills/Leonardtown High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at Great Mills/Leonardtown High).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →