| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 13–1 |
| 2 |  |
Falmouth High School, ME | Yachtsmen | 10–4 |
| 3 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 9–5 |
| 4 |  |
Bishop Stang High | Spartans | 6–8 |
| 5 |  |
Sharon High School | Varsity | 6–8 |
| 6 |  |
Key School | Zags | 6–8 |
| 7 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 3–11 |
| 8 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 3–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,386 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 56 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.592 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.43 ± 0.34: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 19% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sharon High School | 4.29 | 5.42 | 6–8 | 3.5 | +1.12 | 1.6 | 11% |
| 4 | Bishop Stang High | 4.51 | 5.40 | 6–8 | 4.0 | +0.89 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2 | Falmouth High School, ME | 6.15 | 6.94 | 10–4 | 8.4 | +0.79 | 0.7 | 26% |
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 8.06 | 8.79 | 13–1 | 12.3 | +0.72 | 0.2 | 49% |
| 3 | Wayzata High School | 5.81 | 6.45 | 9–5 | 7.6 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 6 | Key School | 5.58 | 5.23 | 6–8 | 6.8 | −0.35 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 7 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 5.03 | 3.77 | 3–11 | 5.5 | −1.25 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 8 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.93 | 3.70 | 3–11 | 7.8 | −2.24 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Zmoira | Sharon High School | 1.33 | 2.35 | 4–6 | 2.5 | +1.02 | 0.9 | 21% |
| Pauljack Solomon | Sharon High School | 1.23 | 2.04 | 3–5 | 2.0 | +0.81 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Cameron Rousseau | Falmouth High School, ME | 2.37 | 3.16 | 10–4 | 8.4 | +0.79 | 0.7 | 26% |
| Charlie Hicks | Wayzata High School | 1.99 | 2.63 | 9–5 | 7.6 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Charles "Alex" Honke | Wayzata High School | 1.38 | 2.01 | 9–5 | 7.6 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Ray Groble | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.72 | 0.47 | 3–11 | 5.5 | −1.25 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Logan O'Connor | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.92 | 0.66 | 3–11 | 5.5 | −1.25 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Caroline Seski | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.48 | -0.17 | 3–7 | 5.5 | −1.65 | 2.3 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Navy | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Zags | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Zags | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Navy | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Zags | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navy | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Blue Devils | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Zags | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 1-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Navy | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 2-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Zags | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Navy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Zags | 1-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Zags | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Navy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 1-5-6 DNF |
| 50 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Navy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Oaks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 1-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 1-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
