Grosse Pointe South High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99 (fleet 1.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 51–21 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 4 | 31–9 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 8–7 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 12–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (58 matches) the record is 40–18 against 39.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 1.53 | -1.47 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| 2017-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.42 | 2.51 | 9–2 | 7.5 | +1.09 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 2017-04-21 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Quals | skipper | 1.26 | 2.14 | 16–2 | 14.5 | +0.88 | 0.7 | 29% |
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.24 | 4.24 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2016-05-28 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.48 | -0.17 | 3–7 | 5.5 | −1.65 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.19 | 4.19 | 5–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.18 | 0.21 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.98 | 0.2 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| MISSA East Baker Pre-Quals | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| MISSA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Pumpkin Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| MISSA Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.2 | 1.45 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Doublehanded Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 11.0 | 0.68 |
| MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| TCSF Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 4 | 16.5 | -0.55 |
| East Qualifier, team racing | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Lakes Championships | Crew | B | 3 | 16.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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