| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Spring Lake High School | Red | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | Norsemen | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Cranberry Compote | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
St. Francis High School Traverse City | St Francis Gladiator | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Traverse City Central | Varsity | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,667 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 21 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.345 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.60 ± 0.50: an orderly event, more orderly than 85% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.17 | 8.17 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe North High School | 2.04 | 3.99 | 4–2 | 2.3 | +1.96 | 1.8 | 13% |
| 2 | Spring Lake High School | 4.08 | 5.01 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.93 | 0.3 | 52% |
| 4 | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.99 | 1.64 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 6 | Detroit Country Day School | 2.34 | 1.55 | 2–4 | 2.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 4 | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 2.47 | 1.55 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 7 | Traverse City Central | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–6 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Seski | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.19 | 4.19 | 5–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| Lindsey Ramsdell | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.99 | 2.95 | 4–2 | 2.3 | +1.96 | 1.8 | 13% |
| John Huskin | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.91 | 2.87 | 4–2 | 2.3 | +1.96 | 1.8 | 13% |
| Mathew Moores | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.20 | 2.16 | 4–2 | 2.3 | +1.96 | 1.8 | 13% |
| Jonathan Prins | Spring Lake High School | 1.19 | 2.12 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.93 | 0.3 | 52% |
| Grant Stille | Spring Lake High School | 1.40 | 2.32 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.93 | 0.3 | 52% |
| Connagh Rowley | Detroit Country Day School | 0.50 | 0.39 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Allison Glover | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.73 | 0.39 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Buddy Ford-Rippolone | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.70 | 0.36 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Hunter Shuert | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.24 | -0.10 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Liz Obermaier | Detroit Country Day School | 0.86 | 0.07 | 2–4 | 2.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Katherine Clulo | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.63 | -0.29 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Maryfrances Myler | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.72 | -0.20 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Lily Salgat | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.76 | -0.16 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Brooke Corso | Traverse City Central | 0.21 | -2.79 | 0–6 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Amelia Burke | Traverse City Central | 0.07 | -2.93 | 0–6 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Maddie Zimmerman | Traverse City Central | 0.44 | -2.56 | 0–6 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cranberry Compote | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Cranberry Compote | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Red | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Cranberry Compote | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cranberry Compote | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cranberry Compote | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Norsemen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cranberry Compote | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
