Spring Lake High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.09 (fleet 1.76) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–2 (83%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (6 matches) the record is 5–1 against 4.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.40 | 2.32 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.93 | 0.3 | 52% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Doublehanded Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.7 | 0.41 |
| MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 2.58 |
| DCDS Halloween Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.4 | 2.04 |
| Coast Guard City Classic | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 1.52 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| East Qualifier, team racing | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.51 |
| Halloween Regatta DCDS | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.6 | 2.78 |
| Gordon Cornwell Memorial | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.4 | 0.92 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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