| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Spring Lake High School | Red | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | GPS Blue Devils Gold | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Traverse City West | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Traverse City Central | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | noresmen | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
St. Francis High School Traverse City | St Francis A | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 419 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 21 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.383 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 3.41 | 5.16 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.76 | 1.3 | 21% |
| 1 | Detroit Country Day School | 3.92 | 5.04 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.11 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 2 | Spring Lake High School | 4.17 | 4.87 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 5 | Traverse City Central | 1.76 | 1.98 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 4 | Traverse City West | 3.02 | 2.78 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 6 | Grosse Pointe North High School | 2.85 | 0.31 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.54 | 2.5 | 99% |
| 7 | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.32 | -2.68 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Colepaert | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.07 | 2.83 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.76 | 1.3 | 21% |
| Grant Kojaian | Detroit Country Day School | 1.28 | 2.40 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.11 | 0.5 | 40% |
| Cole Wiand | Detroit Country Day School | 1.30 | 2.41 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.11 | 0.5 | 40% |
| Grant Stille | Spring Lake High School | 1.24 | 1.94 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 53% |
| Reid Kwiatkowski | Spring Lake High School | 0.74 | 1.44 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 53% |
| Alex Anderson | Traverse City Central | 0.88 | 1.09 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Jack Shields | Traverse City Central | 0.41 | 0.63 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Maddie Zimmerman | Traverse City Central | 0.14 | 0.36 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Mitchell Clark | Traverse City West | 0.90 | 0.66 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Sara Gustafson | Traverse City West | 1.00 | 0.76 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Brooke Ostrowski | Traverse City West | 0.79 | 0.55 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Nate Kane | Grosse Pointe North High School | 1.66 | -0.89 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.54 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Lindsey Ramsdell | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.66 | -1.88 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.54 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Ryan Rozycki | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.30 | -2.24 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.54 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Katherine Clulo | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.28 | -2.72 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Mary Beth Myler | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.04 | -2.96 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Nick Julien | St. Francis High School Traverse City | -0.33 | -3.33 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
noresmen | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St Francis A | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
noresmen | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St Francis A | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 8 | |
Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
noresmen | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St Francis A | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
noresmen | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
St Francis A | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
noresmen | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-3-4 | def. | |
St Francis A | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
noresmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
St Francis A | 3-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
