Traverse City Central '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.39 (fleet 0.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–33 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 2–12 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 6–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 5–23 against 7.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.36 | -0.15 | 3–11 | 3.9 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | skipper | 0.48 | -0.32 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −0.80 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.44 | -2.56 | 0–6 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tulip Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.0 | 1.05 |
| Spring Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.5 | 0.45 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| 2016 Turkey Leg Regatta | Crew | B | 7 | 27.9 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Red 8 Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.2 | -0.80 |
| East Qualifier, team racing | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Regatta 2 | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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