| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | norsemen | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Traverse City West | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Traverse City Central | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
East Grand Rapids | Varsity One | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Gumdrop Mountain | 0–0 |
| 6 | |
Detroit Country Day School | Peppermint Forest | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 967 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 10 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.518 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe North High School norsemen | 1.47 | 4.47 | 4–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 9% |
| 2 | Traverse City West Varsity | 1.64 | 2.71 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.07 | 0.4 | 43% |
| 3 | Traverse City Central Varsity | 1.89 | 1.27 | 2–2 | 2.4 | −0.62 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 5 | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | 1.59 | -0.20 | 1–3 | 2.1 | −1.79 | 1.1 | 97% |
| 6 | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | -0.04 | -3.04 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Weinkauf | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.27 | 3.27 | 3–0 | 1.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 18% |
| Lindsey Ramsdell | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.77 | 3.77 | 4–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 9% |
| Ryan Rozycki | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.25 | 3.25 | 3–0 | 1.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.4 | 15% |
| Eric Anton | Traverse City West | -0.16 | 0.91 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.07 | 0.4 | 43% |
| Mitchell Clark | Traverse City West | 1.02 | 2.09 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.07 | 0.4 | 43% |
| Kyle Sitkins | Traverse City West | 0.70 | 1.78 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.07 | 0.4 | 43% |
| Alex Anderson | Traverse City Central | 0.96 | 0.34 | 2–2 | 2.4 | −0.62 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Jack Shields | Traverse City Central | 0.35 | -0.28 | 2–2 | 2.4 | −0.62 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Maddie Zimmerman | Traverse City Central | 0.36 | -0.26 | 2–2 | 2.4 | −0.62 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Justin Lee | Detroit Country Day School | 0.26 | -1.53 | 1–3 | 2.1 | −1.79 | 1.1 | 97% |
| Connagh Rowley | Detroit Country Day School | 0.07 | -1.72 | 1–3 | 2.1 | −1.79 | 1.1 | 97% |
| Nick Wachol | Detroit Country Day School | 1.04 | -0.75 | 1–3 | 2.1 | −1.79 | 1.1 | 97% |
| Jacob Mackey | Detroit Country Day School | -0.26 | -3.26 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Vishnu Venkatesan | Detroit Country Day School | -0.20 | -3.20 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grosse Pointe North High School norsemen | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | 60% | |
| 1 | 3 | Traverse City West Varsity | Traverse City Central Varsity | 46% | upset |
| 1 | 4 | Grosse Pointe North High School norsemen | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 72% | |
| 1 | 6 | Grosse Pointe North High School norsemen | Traverse City West Varsity | 42% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | Traverse City Central Varsity | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | 57% | |
| 1 | 9 | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 79% | |
| 1 | 11 | Grosse Pointe North High School norsemen | Traverse City Central Varsity | 49% | upset |
| 1 | 12 | Traverse City West Varsity | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 13 | Traverse City Central Varsity | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 83% | |
| 1 | 15 | Traverse City West Varsity | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 78% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
norsemen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Varsity One | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
norsemen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity One | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
norsemen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
norsemen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity One | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity One | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
norsemen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity One | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grosse Pointe North High School | norsemen | Adam Weinkauf '18 Lindsey Ramsdell '18 Nate Kane '15 Ryan Rozycki '16 |
Ryan Rozycki '16 Nate Kane '15 Mathew Moores '17 Ellie Frame '18 Sydney Semack '18 Chase Moseri '16 John Godoshian '18 |
|
Traverse City West | Varsity | Eric Anton '15 Kyle Sitkins '16 Mitchell Clark '16 |
Jeff Linenger '15 Brooke Ostrowski '18 Henry Linenger '17 |
|
Traverse City Central | Varsity | Alex Anderson '15 Jack Shields '15 Maddie Zimmerman '17 |
Brooke Corso '17 Allie Friar '15 Margaret Miron '17 |
|
Detroit Country Day School | Gumdrop Mountain | Connagh Rowley '18 Justin Lee '17 Nick Wachol '19 |
Christopher Gilmer-Hill '18 Grant Anusbigian '17 Christopher Soo '18 Luay Jawad '16 |
|
Detroit Country Day School | Peppermint Forest | Brian Liu '18 Gaspard Mosquet '19 Jacob Mackey '17 Vishnu Venkatesan '16 |
Alexandra Soo '18 Veronica Agne '15 Brittany Rivera '15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
