Grosse Pointe North High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 12–13 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | — | 8–2 |
| Spring 2015 | 4 | — | 4–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 9–10 against 6.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | crew | 1.40 | 4.40 | 4–0 | 3.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | crew | 0.99 | 2.95 | 4–2 | 2.3 | +1.96 | 1.8 | 13% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | crew | 0.80 | 1.08 | 1–8 | 0.8 | +0.28 | 0.0 | 59% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship 2015 | Crew | B | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| East Qualifier, team racing | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Regatta 2 | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Crew | TR | 13 | 8% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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