| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | Norsemen | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Mamba Mixed | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Spring Lake High School | Red | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
St. Francis High School Traverse City | St Francis Gladiator | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Hamilton High School - MI | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 8 |  |
Traverse City Central | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 9 | |
Detroit Country Day School | King Cobra Mixed | 0–0 |
| 10 |  |
Brother Rice High School - MI | Warriors I | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,128 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 36 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.543 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.12 ± 0.42: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | 2.09 | 4.71 | 7–1 | 4.6 | +2.62 | 3.1 | 5% |
| 4 | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | 1.10 | 2.64 | 5–3 | 3.0 | +1.53 | 1.7 | 12% |
| 3 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 1.28 | 2.70 | 5–3 | 3.3 | +1.42 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 1 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | 4.05 | 4.07 | 7–1 | 7.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 6 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 2.41 | 1.89 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 8 | Traverse City Central Varsity | 0.94 | 0.14 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −0.80 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 5 | Spring Lake High School Red | 2.58 | 1.66 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.92 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 9 | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | 1.47 | 0.27 | 2–6 | 3.5 | −1.20 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 10 | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 0.36 | -2.64 | 0–8 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Beaty | West Bloomfield High School | -0.01 | 2.99 | 4–0 | 1.8 | ≥+3.00 | 4.1 | 3% |
| Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen | Loyola Academy | 0.46 | 3.46 | 4–0 | 2.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| Rory Neenan | Loyola Academy | 0.64 | 3.26 | 7–1 | 4.6 | +2.62 | 3.1 | 5% |
| Hayden Easom | Loyola Academy | 1.07 | 3.69 | 7–1 | 4.6 | +2.62 | 3.1 | 5% |
| Jacob Mackey | Detroit Country Day School | 0.38 | 1.91 | 5–3 | 3.0 | +1.53 | 1.7 | 12% |
| Connagh Rowley | Detroit Country Day School | 0.41 | 1.94 | 5–3 | 3.0 | +1.53 | 1.7 | 12% |
| Brian Liu | Detroit Country Day School | 0.46 | 1.99 | 5–3 | 3.0 | +1.53 | 1.7 | 12% |
| Jack Bull | West Bloomfield High School | 0.51 | 1.93 | 5–3 | 3.3 | +1.42 | 1.3 | 17% |
| Nicole Millerman | West Bloomfield High School | 0.35 | 1.77 | 5–3 | 3.3 | +1.42 | 1.3 | 17% |
| Conor Kennedy | Loyola Academy | 0.45 | 1.62 | 2–1 | 1.6 | +1.16 | 0.3 | 56% |
| Charlie Ramsdell | Grosse Pointe North High School | 1.40 | 1.41 | 7–1 | 7.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Lindsey Ramsdell | Grosse Pointe North High School | 1.09 | 0.76 | 6–1 | 6.2 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 82% |
| John Huskin | Grosse Pointe North High School | 1.49 | 1.15 | 6–1 | 6.2 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 82% |
| Katherine Clulo | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.39 | -0.14 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Maryfrances Myler | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.64 | 0.11 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Justin Friend | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 1.11 | 0.59 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Maddie Zimmerman | Traverse City Central | 0.48 | -0.32 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −0.80 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Brooke Corso | Traverse City Central | 0.21 | -0.59 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −0.80 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Ryan Peterson | Spring Lake High School | 0.10 | -0.82 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.92 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Claire Deblanc | Spring Lake High School | 0.43 | -0.49 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.92 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Amanda Williams | Detroit Country Day School | 0.01 | -1.19 | 2–6 | 3.5 | −1.20 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Liz Obermaier | Detroit Country Day School | 0.69 | -0.51 | 2–6 | 3.5 | −1.20 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Andrew Tonon | Detroit Country Day School | 0.80 | -0.40 | 2–6 | 3.5 | −1.20 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Preston Carey | Brother Rice High School - MI | 0.23 | -2.77 | 0–6 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Thomas Hamill | Brother Rice High School - MI | -0.09 | -3.08 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Patrick Monahan | Brother Rice High School - MI | -0.26 | -3.26 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Tristian Klein | Brother Rice High School - MI | 0.10 | -2.90 | 0–6 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Traverse City Central Varsity | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 68% | |
| 1 | 3 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | Spring Lake High School Red | 84% | |
| 1 | 4 | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | 55% | |
| 1 | 5 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 81% | |
| 1 | 6 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | Traverse City Central Varsity | 74% | |
| 1 | 7 | Spring Lake High School Red | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 83% | |
| 1 | 9 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 95% | |
| 1 | 10 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | 61% | |
| 1 | 11 | Spring Lake High School Red | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 54% | |
| 1 | 12 | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | Traverse City Central Varsity | 51% | |
| 1 | 13 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 83% | |
| 1 | 15 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | Loyola Academy Ramblers | 86% | |
| 1 | 16 | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | Spring Lake High School Red | 23% | upset |
| 1 | 17 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 54% | |
| 1 | 18 | Traverse City Central Varsity | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | 41% | upset |
| 1 | 19 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 95% | |
| 1 | 21 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | 53% | |
| 1 | 22 | Spring Lake High School Red | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | 72% | |
| 1 | 23 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 80% | |
| 1 | 25 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 79% | |
| 1 | 26 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | 46% | upset |
| 1 | 27 | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | 8% | upset |
| 1 | 29 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 79% | |
| 1 | 30 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Traverse City Central Varsity | 72% | |
| 1 | 31 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | 89% | |
| 1 | 33 | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 66% | |
| 1 | 34 | Spring Lake High School Red | Traverse City Central Varsity | 80% | |
| 1 | 35 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 42% | upset |
| 1 | 37 | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors I | 68% | |
| 1 | 38 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | Traverse City Central Varsity | 57% | |
| 1 | 39 | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 27% | upset |
| 1 | 40 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Spring Lake High School Red | 40% | upset |
| 1 | 42 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | Traverse City Central Varsity | 79% | |
| 1 | 43 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | Detroit Country Day School King Cobra Mixed | 67% | |
| 1 | 44 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | Spring Lake High School Red | 25% | upset |
| 1 | 45 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Detroit Country Day School Mamba Mixed | 68% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors I | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Norsemen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
King Cobra Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mamba Mixed | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors I | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mamba Mixed | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
King Cobra Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Mamba Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors I | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
King Cobra Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Mamba Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
King Cobra Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 19 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors I | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mamba Mixed | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
King Cobra Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors I | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
King Cobra Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Mamba Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors I | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
King Cobra Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Mamba Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors I | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
King Cobra Mixed | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors I | 1-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Mamba Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors I | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-3-5 | def. | |
King Cobra Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mamba Mixed | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
