St. Francis High School Traverse City '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 49.77 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 15 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.43 (fleet 0.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–21 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 6–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 4–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 12–16 against 15.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.63 | -0.09 | 6–8 | 7.6 | −0.72 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | skipper | 0.64 | 0.11 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.72 | -0.20 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| Spring Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship 2016 | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.7 | 1.06 |
| Pumpkin Regatta | Crew | B | 8 | 14.2 | — |
| Michigan State Doublehanded Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.5 | -0.68 |
| Cornwell Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.4 | 1.73 |
| 2016 Turkey Leg Regatta | Crew | B | 7 | 13.7 | — |
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship 2015 | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.3 | 1.16 |
| Michigan State 420 Champs | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.6 | 0.50 |
| Cornwell Memorial | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 0.78 |
| Coast Guard City Classic | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | -0.02 |
| Cherryland Invitational | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.2 | -0.69 |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| TCSF Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| TC St. Francis Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Red 8 Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.9 | 1.12 |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| Halloween Regatta DCDS | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.2 | -0.69 |
| Gordon Cornwell Memorial | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.6 | 0.01 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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