Pumpkin Regatta

HostGrosse Pointe South/GPYC
Date10/23/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	East Grand Rapids	Varsity Mixed 1	21	55	76
2	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils (Mixed)	50	26	76
3	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	45	40	85
4	Grosse Pointe South High School	Gold (Mixed)	41	62	103
5	Grosse Pointe South High School	Yellow (Mixed)	50	57	107
6	Grand Haven High School	GH Blue	60	79	139
7	Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Scarlet	86	54	140
8	Grand Haven High School	Mixed	74	81	155
9	Traverse City Central	Varsity	108	57	165
10	Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	40	132	172
11	West Bloomfield High School	Pumpkins	87	87	174
12	Detroit Country Day School	Ghost	97	86	183
13	Traverse City West	Varsity	99	90	189
14	Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Grey	98	100	198
15	West Bloomfield High School	MIXED Skeletons	104	104	208
16	St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	118	114	232
17	Cranbrook Kingswood	Mixed	114	119	233
18	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook White	139	116	255
19	West Bloomfield High School	Trick or Treat MIXED	143	126	269

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
East Grand Rapids	Varsity Mixed 1	4	4	1	4	2	1	4	1	21	Connor Goulet '17 [1-8] Regan Pitts '18 [1-2, 5-8] Bella Kirchgessner '19 [3-4]
Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	1	1	8	7	5	2	6	10	40	Charlie Ramsdell '20 Adam Suraez '20
Grosse Pointe South High School	Gold (Mixed)	2	3	5	2	8	7	12	2	41	Billy Vogel '21 Audrey Whitaker '19
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	11	8	7	1	1	8	2	7	45	Buddy Ford-Rippolone '17 Lauren Winegarden '20
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils (Mixed)	8	5	3	3	12	5	9	5	50	Christiana Schiebner '19 [1-2] Dougie Cowan '22 [3-8] Emma Turner '19 [1-4] Christiana Schiebner '19 [5-8]
Grosse Pointe South High School	Yellow (Mixed)	12	10	2	6	9	6	1	4	50	Anna Carron '21 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Kirkman '20 [3-4, 7-8] Ryan Hexter '21 [1-6] Jacob Orhan '17 [7-8]
Grand Haven High School	GH Blue	6	17	4	16	4	3	7	3	60	Frank Frisinger '19 Morgan Parrent '19
Grand Haven High School	Mixed	5	11	11	12	7	4	13	11	74	Elise Betten '18 Grace Kucharski '19
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Scarlet	9	6	10	19	3	17	14	8	86	Michael Kalata '18 Tyler Pardo '18
West Bloomfield High School	Pumpkins	3	2	6	18	6	16	19	17	87	Isabel Dziuba '19 Nolan Beaty '19
Detroit Country Day School	Ghost	18	9	13	11	13	14	3	16	97	Brian Liu '18 Christopher Gilmer-Hill '18
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Grey	14	13	15	10	18	11	8	9	98	Rylan Van De Weting '20 Kyla Bugarin '20
Traverse City West	Varsity	15	14	9	8	14	15	11	13	99	Liam Clone '20 Ian Beck '18
West Bloomfield High School	MIXED Skeletons	10	20	12	13	11	DSQ	5	12	104	Benjamin Varner '18 Victor Logan '20
Traverse City Central	Varsity	7	18	17	9	17	9	17	14	108	Amelia Burke '18 Caelan Wright '19
Cranbrook Kingswood	Mixed	13	16	19	14	10	13	10	19	114	Carsten Ritter '17 Lizzie Balsam '18
St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	20	12	14	5	20	12	15	20	118	Katherine Clulo '17 Noah Passinault '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook White	17	15	18	15	19	19	18	18	139	Amy Phenjati '18 Natalie Simmons '18
West Bloomfield High School	Trick or Treat MIXED	16	19	20	20	15	18	20	15	143	Etahn Gulati '22 [1-2, 5-6] Walter Paliga '22 [3-4, 7-8] Walter Paliga '22 [1-2, 5-6] Etahn Gulati '22 [3-4, 7-8]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils (Mixed)	3	5	1	5	1	5	2	4	26	Dominic Dulac '20 [1-8] Jacob Schaupeter '21 [1-4, 7-8] John Walton '18 [5-6]
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	4	6	6	10	9	3	1	1	40	Matthew Tan '19 Bonnie Zhu '19
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Scarlet	8	2	2	3	16	7	3	13	54	Meghan Dieball '20 Neil Quinlan '17
East Grand Rapids	Varsity Mixed 1	1	7	5	7	BKD	4	9	15	55	Caroline Grin '21 [1-8] Annika Lampan '21 [1-6] Bella Kirchgessner '19 [7-8]
Grosse Pointe South High School	Yellow (Mixed)	2	3	13	11	3	1	8	16	57	Ashley Strong '20 [1-8] Matthew Schulte '20 [1-4] Taft Peck '18 [5-8]
Traverse City Central	Varsity	19	4	4	6	7	2	7	8	57	Olivia Wilson '18 Drew Snyder '19
Grosse Pointe South High School	Gold (Mixed)	15	1	3	9	6	8	14	6	62	Eva Paschke '20 [1-8] Luc Walz '20 [1-4, 7-8] Caroline Seski '17 [5-6]
Grand Haven High School	GH Blue	16	10	16	8	4	12	6	7	79	Max Curtiss '19 Nicholas Garvale '19
Grand Haven High School	Mixed	17	9	10	4	19	15	5	2	81	Derek Hartman '22 Ethan Walburg '19
Detroit Country Day School	Ghost	5	12	9	19	11	10	17	3	86	Kaya Donat '20 Michael Williams '20
West Bloomfield High School	Pumpkins	7	11	11	13	13	BKD	16	5	87	Matthew Elliot '20 Shane Sanghvi '19
Traverse City West	Varsity	14	15	8	2	8	11	18	14	90	Nick Gustafson '18 Sara Gustafson '17
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Grey	13	14	15	17	5	16	10	10	100	Dale Garner '17 Faith Gaertner '20
West Bloomfield High School	MIXED Skeletons	6	8	17	20	14	19	11	9	104	Anthony Dziuba '21 [1-2, 5-8] Jack Turpin '21 [3-4] Jack Turpin '21 [1-2, 5-8] Anthony Dziuba '21 [3-4]
St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	20	17	14	1	20	17	13	12	114	Annie Myler '20 Maryfrances Myler '18
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook White	18	16	OCS	14	12	6	12	17	116	Jami Male '20 Kenzie Smith '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	Mixed	11	19	12	15	10	14	20	18	119	Bella Schincariol '19 Keegan Aerts '21
West Bloomfield High School	Trick or Treat MIXED	10	13	18	16	18	13	19	19	126	Jake Elsen '21 [1-2, 5-8] Bryce Vandenavond '19 [3-4] Bryce Vandenavond '19 [1-2, 5-8] Jake Elsen '21 [3-4]
Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	12	20	OCS	18	17	9	15	20	132	Teddy Prokop '19 Mclellan '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook White	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Cranbrook Kingswood Mixed	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Detroit Country Day School Ghost	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Grand Haven High School GH Blue	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Grand Haven High School Mixed	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils Grey	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils Scarlet	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils (Mixed)	12	12	14	14	16	16	24	24
Grosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed)	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed)	14	14	16	16	24	24	20	20
St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1
Traverse City Central Varsity	16	16	24	24	20	20	2	2
Traverse City West Varsity	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3
West Bloomfield High School MIXED Skeletons	24	24	20	20	2	2	4	4
West Bloomfield High School Pumpkins	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5
West Bloomfield High School Trick or Treat MIXED	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook White	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Cranbrook Kingswood Mixed	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Detroit Country Day School Ghost	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Grand Haven High School GH Blue	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Grand Haven High School Mixed	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils Grey	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils Scarlet	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	12	12	14	14	16	16	24	24
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils (Mixed)	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Grosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed)	14	14	16	16	24	24	20	20
Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed)	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1
St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator	16	16	24	24	20	20	2	2
Traverse City Central Varsity	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3
Traverse City West Varsity	24	24	20	20	2	2	4	4
West Bloomfield High School MIXED Skeletons	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5
West Bloomfield High School Pumpkins	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6
West Bloomfield High School Trick or Treat MIXED	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Cranbrook Kingswood	Buddy Ford-Rippolone '17	Lauren Winegarden '20
Cranbrook Blue	Matthew Tan '19	Bonnie Zhu '19
Cranbrook Kingswood	Amy Phenjati '18	Natalie Simmons '18
Cranbrook White	Jami Male '20	Kenzie Smith '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	Carsten Ritter '17	Lizzie Balsam '18
Mixed	Bella Schincariol '19	Keegan Aerts '21
Detroit Country Day School	Brian Liu '18	Christopher Gilmer-Hill '18
Ghost	Kaya Donat '20	Michael Williams '20
East Grand Rapids	Connor Goulet '17 [1-8]	Regan Pitts '18 [1-2, 5-8] Bella Kirchgessner '19 [3-4]
Varsity Mixed 1	Caroline Grin '21 [1-8]	Annika Lampan '21 [1-6] Bella Kirchgessner '19 [7-8]
Grand Haven High School	Frank Frisinger '19	Morgan Parrent '19
GH Blue	Max Curtiss '19	Nicholas Garvale '19
Grand Haven High School	Elise Betten '18	Grace Kucharski '19
Mixed	Derek Hartman '22	Ethan Walburg '19
Grosse Ile High School	Rylan Van De Weting '20	Kyla Bugarin '20
Red Devils Grey	Dale Garner '17	Faith Gaertner '20
Grosse Ile High School	Michael Kalata '18	Tyler Pardo '18
Red Devils Scarlet	Meghan Dieball '20	Neil Quinlan '17
Grosse Pointe North High School	Charlie Ramsdell '20	Adam Suraez '20
Norsemen	Teddy Prokop '19	Mclellan '19
Grosse Pointe South High School	Christiana Schiebner '19 [1-2] Dougie Cowan '22 [3-8]	Emma Turner '19 [1-4] Christiana Schiebner '19 [5-8]
Blue Devils (Mixed)	Dominic Dulac '20 [1-8]	Jacob Schaupeter '21 [1-4, 7-8] John Walton '18 [5-6]
Grosse Pointe South High School	Billy Vogel '21	Audrey Whitaker '19
Gold (Mixed)	Eva Paschke '20 [1-8]	Luc Walz '20 [1-4, 7-8] Caroline Seski '17 [5-6]
Grosse Pointe South High School	Anna Carron '21 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Kirkman '20 [3-4, 7-8]	Ryan Hexter '21 [1-6] Jacob Orhan '17 [7-8]
Yellow (Mixed)	Ashley Strong '20 [1-8]	Matthew Schulte '20 [1-4] Taft Peck '18 [5-8]
St. Francis High School Traverse City	Katherine Clulo '17	Noah Passinault '17
St Francis Gladiator	Annie Myler '20	Maryfrances Myler '18
Traverse City Central	Amelia Burke '18	Caelan Wright '19
Varsity	Olivia Wilson '18	Drew Snyder '19
Traverse City West	Liam Clone '20	Ian Beck '18
Varsity	Nick Gustafson '18	Sara Gustafson '17
West Bloomfield High School	Benjamin Varner '18	Victor Logan '20
MIXED Skeletons	Anthony Dziuba '21 [1-2, 5-8] Jack Turpin '21 [3-4]	Jack Turpin '21 [1-2, 5-8] Anthony Dziuba '21 [3-4]
West Bloomfield High School	Isabel Dziuba '19	Nolan Beaty '19
Pumpkins	Matthew Elliot '20	Shane Sanghvi '19
West Bloomfield High School	Etahn Gulati '22 [1-2, 5-6] Walter Paliga '22 [3-4, 7-8]	Walter Paliga '22 [1-2, 5-6] Etahn Gulati '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Trick or Treat MIXED	Jake Elsen '21 [1-2, 5-8] Bryce Vandenavond '19 [3-4]	Bryce Vandenavond '19 [1-2, 5-8] Jake Elsen '21 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Pumpkin Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes